HARPER ON NIQABS:
PM plays for votes in secularist Quebec
Stephen Harper got a strong round of applause Thursday when he made it clear his government will appeal a court decision overturning requirements that a woman remove her niqab while being sworn in as a Canadian citizen.
Mr. Harper said the practice is unacceptable: “I believe, and I think most Canadians believe that it is offensive that someone would hide their identity at the very moment where they are committing to join the Canadian family,” he said.
It was no coincidence that the Prime Minister took a particularly tough line while campaigning in Victoriaville, Que.
The Conservatives have experienced a bump in the polls of late in a province that yielded just five seats in 2011. Current projections have them at around 21% support in the province — a level that could give them 15 or more seats at the election in October.
I think most Canadians believe that it is o ensive that someone would hide their identity at the very moment where they are committing to join the Canadian family
The mini-surge comes on the back of the government’s hardline efforts to combat radical Islam. Quebecers have long been committed to secularism.
They are also particularly vocal about fighting terror — according to a Léger poll this week, 62% of Quebecers support the war in Iraq and 74% agree with the new federal anti-terror bill.
Mr. Harper was in Victoriaville for a roundtable on crime, after which he announced the Conservatives will introduce legislation that blocks automatic statutory release (after two-thirds of time served) for repeat violent offenders.
Contrary to Quebec’s reputation for progressivism, these policies appear to be resonating in the parts of the province the Conservatives are targeting.
A good gauge of how hot the Conservatives are in Quebec is the quality of candidates being recruited. Mr. Harper was asked about the possibility of local mayor Alain Rayes running for the party. Other prominent mayors, journalists and businessmen are also said to be considering a run for the Tories.
The uptick in Conservative fortunes in Quebec may explain why the prime minister spent much of the previous week in the House of Commons beating up on the NDP. Almost every seat where the Conservatives are competitive in Quebec — from Lac-St-Jean, down through Jonquière and Chicoutimi to Quebec City, then across the St. Lawrence to the south shore ridings (the so-called Blue Arrow) — they will go nose to nose with the New Democrats.
It was a mystifying sight last week watching Mr. Harper go after NDP leader Tom Mulcair over the use of taxpayers’ money for use in party offices in Quebec. Such was the venom of the Conservative attacks on the New Democrats, it prompted jokes about the prospects of a reckless coalition between the Conservatives and Liberals.
But the Conservative polling was clearly suggesting that NDP support in Quebec is soft and could seep to the Conservatives with sufficient inducement.
The problem is Mr. Harper needs a strong NDP in much of the rest of the country — bashing Mr. Mulcair could prove counter-productive in the Greater Toronto Area.
Recent public opinion polls have the NDP at 18% support in Ontario and a private survey of 20 ridings in the GTA suggested the NDP led in none and were over 15% support in only one. No wonder Mr. Mulcair has spent this week in and around Toronto, making bread and talking small business, as he did with a Mississauga restaurant owner Thursday.
The rule of thumb in recent GTA byelections in the province is a tripling of the Liberal vote from 2011, and an NDP collapse.
At those levels, the Conservatives will lose a number of ridings they currently hold and the Liberals will march out of Ontario with 80 or so seats.
The tough-on-terror, tougher-on-crime line seems to be working for Mr. Harper in Quebec. But the Conservatives clearly have to balance a message tailored to sink the NDP in the beautiful province, with one that keeps them afloat elsewhere.
The tough-on-terror, tougher-on-crime line seems to be working in Quebec