PATTERSON PAYS WAY WITH RAPTORS,
Only three teams, Atlanta, Golden State and Memphis, have a better winning percentage than the Toronto Raptors. For all of the hand-wringing that has accompanied this season — about the team’s young players, mediocre defence or at-times jumper-happy offence — the Raptors are in an excellent position going into the all-star break.
Given DeMar DeRozan’s injury, that has to be considered a massive victory for the Raptors, within the context of this season. And if they can maintain their standing, they will head into their first-round playoff series as a clear favourite for the first time in franchise history. Let that sink in.
With the schedule now on pause for a week, some thoughts, observations and questions about the Raptors with 29 games remaining:
Quick: Who has been the second-best Raptor this year, behind Kyle Lowry? The default answer is DeRozan, an allstar year ago, but he missed 21 games with a groin injury (and has not played up to his level of a year ago when he has been healthy). Lou Williams has been better than the Raptors could have hoped, and he scored 27 points against Washington on Wednesday, but he is mostly a one-dimensional player (but what a dimension). Jonas Valanciunas has the secondhighest player efficiency rating on the team, but remains a defensive liability. Amir Johnson is a different player from one night to the next. James Johnson’s role has varied too much to consider him.
That leaves … Patrick Patterson? Patterson’s per-game averages of 8.5 points and 5.7 rebounds are ordinary, and his player efficiency rating is just slightly above average. However, he is adaptable and the most agile big-man defender on the team — important for the Raptors, who struggle to stop the ball at the first line of attack.
“He’s probably playing the most consistent basketball defensively and offensively as anybody for us individually,” Raptors coach Dwane Casey said. “Defensively, he fits in a lot of different schemes, doing different things: double-teaming in the post, showing in the pick-and-roll, walling in the pick-and-roll. He does a bit of everything.”
In the first season of a three-year, US$18-million deal, Patterson has proven to be essential.
Nearly two-thirds through this season, it is still uncertain whether Terrence Ross has grown from his no-show last year in the playoff series against Brooklyn. He is still guilty of inexcusable lapses of focus — on Sunday against the Spurs, he fell victim to two give-and-go plays in the same quarter. On Wednesday, he slowed down as Andre Miller, the oldest player other than Steve Nash in the NBA, beat him down the floor for a layup. Statistically, Ross is virtually the same player as a year ago, a worrisome proposition for a young player.
The Raptors have more options on the wing this year; Williams and James Johnson give Casey far more options. Still, the Raptors cannot know whether Ross will show up in April and May, and that has to be a prevailing thought as the trade deadline approaches. The Raptors can offer Ross an expensive extension after the season ends, and they will have to ask themselves some serious questions about whether or not they want to be the team that pays him. Right now, his potential is outpaced by his unreliability.
Does anybody have an idea of what the Raptors’ starting lineup will be once the playoffs hit? Wednesday against Washington was the second game with DeMar DeRozan and James Johnson starting together, and it was problematic. The paint was often clogged up, resulting in several turnovers from both DeRozan and Valanciunas.
A natural adjustment would be for Patterson, the team’s best high-volume three-point shooter, to replace Amir Johnson. However, the Raptors have struggled defensively in the past with Valanciunas and Patterson in the front court.
A wager: We have not seen the last of the starting lineup that began the year — Lowry, DeRozan, Ross, Amir Johnson and Valanciunas.
And that brings us to the trade deadline, which hits next Thursday. On the fringes, the Raptors could use another frontcourt player to bump the limited Tyler Hansbrough from the outer edges of the rotation. However, James Johnson’s versatility — he can slide over to power forward in some lineups — makes that need minor.
The Raptors’ biggest need might be a player that combines size and shooting on the wing, but those players tend to be very good, and thus difficult to acquire. All along, Raptors general manager Masai Ujiri has said he considered this season a platform for the core of the team to prove itself. It would be a surprise, then, if Ujiri decides to make a move that lessens the role of Valanciunas and Ross even more. It is hard to think of a move that makes a ton of sense for the Raptors.
Where does that leave expectations for the club? About the same place as when the season started. The obsession over winning a playoff series is understandable, seeing as the Raptors have never won one. It would be a gratifying milestone for a long-suffering fan base.
If that comes at the expense of a sustainable future of contending, though, is it worth it? Without tangible leaps forward from one or both of Valanciunas and Ross, modest post-season success might feel a bit empty. It is not momentary relevance that has been fleeting in Toronto; it is longlasting relevance. Obtaining it remains the goal.