Bloggers weigh in
Blue Jays bloggers provide their thoughts on these 10 key questions in National Post’s annual pre-season panel
The Post poses 10 questions to
our panel of baseball bloggers.
What effect, if any, will Paul Beeston’s impending retirement have on the team in 2015?
Joanna Cornish Any effect Beeston has will be on what Beeston says to the media, how he pushes the idea of the All-Star Game returning to Toronto and how he pushes grass in the Rogers Centre. Effect on the actual team? Likely not much. Maybe Beeston will start wearing socks, disquieting us all.
Andrew Stoeten Things could get interesting, I think, if the club flops and is headed toward the trade deadline with a GM and president everybody knows are on their way out — especially considering some of the veteran assets they could get a lot for. Don’t see it happening, though.
Tao of Stieb It’s not unheard of for senior executives to indulge in legacy projects when they see the end of line coming. I think accelerating the process of getting grass into the Rogers Centre is one example of this. But in the short term, I don’t see this having an effect on what we see on the field.
Gideon Turk Hopefully only a positive effect. He’ll want to go out with a bang, so whether it is on the field or off the field with the stadium situations in both Toronto and Dunedin, I’m sure he’ll try his best to leave the fans with one last positive memory of him.
Which rookie are you most excited about?
Cornish Daniel Norris, with the van and the french press coffee and the beard, is primed to be a sort of folk hero to the masses. But I think Aaron Sanchez, with the attention on Norris and others, might sneak up and be pure filth. Stealth filth, if you will.
Ian Hunter Miguel Castro. Not just the fact that he can touch 100 miles per hour on the radar gun, but that he can throw his fastball with sink and he can locate it well. Then mix in a changeup at 88-89 miles per hour, and that suddenly makes Castro’s appearances appointment viewing.
Minor Leaguer Dalton Pompey. I remember seeing him and his big smile for the first time a couple seasons ago in Class-A Lansing and he clearly stood out. I love watching him play in centre field and his approach and discipline at the plate has always been good for his age. He’s a hometown guy and he seems as excited to play for the Blue Jays as I am to see him play.
Turk Aaron Sanchez. There is something almost poetic about seeing superstars think they can hit a fastball very far only to beat it into the dirt and get retired 6-3. His stuff might not be as flashy as Miguel Castro’s, but I think it is just as exciting to watch.
Which player will be a pleasant surprise?
Minor Leaguer Drew Hutchison. I expect him to take a big step forward this year with a brand new slider, which is expected to bring up his strikeout rate. That is something most projection systems will not take account of.
Stoeten Justin Smoak has had a pretty uninspiring spring — and career, frankly — and I’m going out on a limb a bit saying him, because he could entirely end up being terrible, but it’s for that exact reason I think he’ll pleasantly surprise. The bar is not set high, and he’s a switch hitter with power that should play up in the Rogers Centre.
Tao of Stieb Expectations are so high on almost everyone who is likely to make the roster, it’s hard to imagine any surprises. But I think Kevin Pillar might take an important step forward this year.
Turk Marco Estrada. I’m not sure many people are expecting him to have success based on what his career numbers look like, but he has shown flashes of greatness out of the bullpen before, and I think he will be able to succeed in a long relief type role in 2015.
Which player will disappoint?
Cornish All of them. All of them will be equally disappointing.
Stoeten It’s a good thing that Michael Saunders has a ready-made platoon partner in Kevin Pillar, because... Michael Saunders might need a platoon partner. If he can stay on the field for long enough to show that he can’t hit lefties, that is. Hoping for the best though!
Tao of Stieb Justin Smoak might not even end up in an everyday role, but if he struggles as he has in recent years, he’ll be the target of off-handed angst.
Turk Roberto Osuna. A lot of fans are grouping him into the same category as Miguel Castro, but I think his command is a lot less refined at this point. He is also just 35.1 innings removed from Tommy John surgery, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he struggles this season.
Second base has been an issue for the Jays for years. Do you believe that will change this season?
Cornish Devon Travis (I pronounce his name like the former CF White, even though I know that’s wrong) is hitting .340/.389/.460 this spring. Will those be the numbers at the end of the season? Probably not, but it’s a pretty line with a nice glove to go with it. The future is nigh, and I just think we should ride these kids to glory.
Hunter Not likely. This is one position that’s been a revolving door since the days of Aaron Hill and Orlando Hudson. Unless Devon Travis suddenly emerges as the next great keystone player for the Blue Jays, I don’t think that will change any time soon.
Stoeten It’s a mistake to look too closely at spring training performance, but in the case of Devon Travis I think he’s shown he can fix the Jays’ second base problem in a lot of ways. Good at-bats and sound defence will do that! He’s maybe not an All-Star, but for now I’m sold.
Tao of Stieb The league average for weighted runs created plus (wRC+) for second basemen is trending downwards, and last year was 88. That’s lower than the league average for catchers (94). Travis will play well enough to contribute this year, but I suspect that even if he becomes a regular, the fact that he’s not Robbie Alomar will make fans unfairly uneasy.
Which was a better deal for the Jays: the Josh Donaldson trade or the Russell Martin signing?
Hunter The Josh Donaldson trade. Russell Martin is a great all-around player, but due to the nature of the position he might only get into 130 games this season. Donaldson can impact the game both on the offensive and defensive side for nearly an entire 162-game schedule.
Minor Leaguer Josh Donaldson. He cost a lot in terms of talent going to the Athletics, but he is under team control through most of his prime and will still be cheap for the value he is projected to provide. On the other hand, Russell Martin will be owed $60 million in his age 34-36 years. We cannot expect that his performance will justify the payroll inflexibility that would come with his paycheque.
Tao of Stieb Josh Donaldson is the better player, but the Jays didn’t need to give up players to get Martin. Even though the contract might look like an overpay in the later years, Martin’s contributions as a catcher to the success of the pitching may be worth more than we’ll be able to capture with current metrics.
Turk The latter. The Donaldson trade appears great, but Anthopoulos had to give up a lot of value in present and future talent to acquire him. The Martin signing looks good when only factoring in normal projections, but once catcher framing is counted, the deal seems like a steal for Toronto.
The pitching staff last year contributed 14.1 Wins Above Replacement as a group, most of it coming from the five primary starters. This year, without Marcus Stroman, Fangraphs.com has the Jays pitchers projected for 7.9 WAR. Are you taking the over or under on that forecast?
Cornish Losing Stroman stings badly. But Sanchez and Norris could step up and fill in. Both have a lot of talent, and carry the same variables as Stroman — inexperienced but with huge upside. I always wanted Sanchez in the rotation. I wish Stroman didn’t have to tear his ACL for it to happen, but here we are. So over 7.9 WAR.
Hunter I’ll take the over, but the status of the Blue Jays’ pitching staff still has me a little nervous. If the team is going to contend, they’ll need to depend on breakout seasons from many of their young arms. Outside of Mark Buehrle and R.A. Dickey, the staff is relatively unproven.
Minor Leaguer Over, but not a lot over. FanGraphs is under-projecting Drew Hutchison, at least I am hoping they are.
Stoeten Definitely the over. Drew Hutchison and Aaron Sanchez made some important changes at the end of last season that wouldn’t have been picked up by the projections, Daniel Norris can really be something special, and there will likely be some serious young talent in the bullpen, too.
The Blue Jays have added little through signings or trades to a bullpen that struggled last year. How concerned are you about the relief corps?
Cornish Building a bullpen is a process that is dark and full of terrors. Big money signings or trades for relief pitchers are crapshoots, just due to the volatile nature of the bullpen pitcher. Concerned? Yes. But hopefully quality will emerge from the arms they have. Or the starting rotation throws 162 complete games.
Hunter As of now, I think they’ll be okay. Bullpens are so hit-or-miss that it’s difficult to gauge right now how they’ll fare over the course of the 162 game schedule. The good thing is Alex Anthopoulos can always add to the bullpen later if need be via trade.
Minor Leaguer Relievers are hard to predict, so I am as always concerned about the bullpen. The Blue Jays will likely have the majors’ cheapest bullpen, but knowing how much performance can fluctuate, the club made the right decision in spending their limited resources elsewhere. Turk Not very concerned. They might not have added through external additions, but the rise of Miguel Castro and Roberto Osuna should deepen what was a top heavy bullpen, and Brett Cecil has been great for two years now, so there is no reason to think he won’t continue to be.
If the Jays aren’t in the race in July, what would you do as general manager at the trade deadline?
Hunter I guess that all depends on how far out of the race they are. If they’re 20 games out, then they should seriously consider offloading some contracts. But if they’re fairly close, then I think Anthopoulos needs to do the opposite and get as much help as possible via trades.
Minor Leaguer I’d probably sit down with my family to hash out fall vacation plans, because I wouldn’t expect to have a job past September. Maybe a cruise down the Danube.
Stoeten I wouldn’t for even a second contemplate trading Jose Bautista or Edwin Encarnacion, if that’s what you’re asking. Impending free agents like Mark Buehrle or Dioner Navarro I’d think about, but there’s way too much talent locked up here for them to be bad in 2016. No rebuilds.
Tao of Stieb That would be a grim state of affairs, but I wouldn’t dump any assets. There’s a lot of payroll flexibility in the coming years, so I’d try to find some other team’s big ugly contract.
How many games will the Jays win, and will they contend for a playoff spot?
Cornish 90 and yes. The Jays will be this year’s Royals. That’s my story and I’m sticking to it.
Hunter If everything breaks right, they should win around 87-88 games. That may not be enough to secure one of the two wild-card spots, but it could very well be enough to win the American League East.
Minor Leaguer It’s the spring so how can I not be optimistic here? I’ll say 88 wins and yes — they will be in contention in September.
Stoeten If they stay mostly healthy, especially in the rotation, the Jays will absolutely contend for a playoff spot. If I’m answering with my head I’d say 88 wins. If it’s with my heart, that number would very easily be higher.
Tao of Stieb The Jays will win 88 games, and will be in the races until the final week of the season.
Turk Somewhere between 85 and 87. I’d tab all five teams in the division to finish with between 80 and 90 wins, so contention seems like a given unless everything goes wrong. With one trade deadline acquisition and players stepping up, this team has the potential to make September very interesting.