Federal parties in dead heat: poll
The three main federal parties are essentially tied in an exclusive new poll that reveals a growing acceptance of the idea of a coalition government among voters.
The Liberals take 32 per cent, the Conservatives 31 per cent and the NDP 28 per cent in the Forum Research survey conducted this week. Though it shows a slight dip in support for the New Democrats — a break from other federal polling released this week — the margin of error means the parties remain in a statistical dead heat.
“Really, the three parties are neck-and-neck,” said Forum President Lorne Bozinoff in an interview. However, because the Conservative support is more optimally spread, the poll predicts they would win the largest share of the 338 seats in play, but would fall short of a majority. If an election were held today, the poll predicts the Conservatives would take 151 seats, the Liberals would take 101 and the NDP 83. Parties require 170 seats to form a one-seat majority in the newly enlarged parliament.
However, there are months until the election, expected in October, and the survey highlights two other issues: Bozinoff said the Conservatives are well within striking distance of a majority, but also that Liberal and NDP voters are especially open to the idea of a coalition government.
“The Tory vote is way better distributed than the Liberal vote,” Bozinoff said. “The Tories are within (reach of ) a majority.”
Support in Ontario, where the Liberals need to gain seats to come anywhere close to forming government, is fairly evenly split: 33 per cent support the Liberals, and 31 per cent each for the Conservatives and the NDP.
“These numbers would put the Liberals in great difficulty in Ontario,” Bozinoff said. The Liberals’ rising fortunes in Quebec — 34 per cent support to 24 per cent for the NDP and 23 per cent for the Conservatives — may look promising; however, he cautioned that the electorate is mercurial.
“In Quebec, the Liberals are up this month, but that could disappear tomorrow,” Bozinoff said. “The Trudeau name is a two-edged sword” in the province.
What that split support could add up to is another Conservative majority.
“If the NDP and Liberals remain strong in splitting the progressive vote, this is going to be like (former prime minister Jean) Chrétien in reverse,” Bozinoff said. Chrétien won his majorities in the 1990s when right-leaning votes were split between the Progressive Conservatives and the Reform Party.
That could be why so many Canadians are now open to some form of coalition government or partnership — Liberal and NDP voters are aware the tables have turned.
Almost two thirds of all voters, 57 per cent, say a coalition would be “appropriate” should no one party win enough seats to form a majority government. That number has remained relatively steady, as 58 per cent said the same in a similar April survey. However, since that survey, support for a formal coalition has softened, falling from 41 to 33 per cent, since April.
That could be a result of the Conservatives warning of the dangers of such an arrangement in recent months, as discussion of the possible outcomes of a hung parliament have increased, Bozinoff said.
Only 14 per cent of respondents chose the constitutionally appropriate answer of who they would support if the final seat count were hung: “whomever has the confidence of the house.”
NDP voters are the most likely to support a coalition at 75 per cent; 67 per cent of identified Liberals would support a coalition if no party holds a majority; and just 32 per cent of Conservatives think it’s a good idea.
The poll surveyed 1,156 Canadians through telephone interactive voice response from June 3 to 5. It is considered accurate +/-three percentage points 19 times out of 20.