Jays hoping on lucky No. 29
George Brett and Adam Wainwright were picked 29th overall in their respective drafts. Brett is in the Hall of Fame and Wainwright owns a 2.98 ERA over 10 seasons in the big leagues.
Wendell Fairly, Arturo McDowell and Derick Grigsby were also 29th picks. Fairly never rose above Double-A and is playing in an independent league. McDowell’s career was done after five seasons in the minors. Grigsby lasted two years before seeking other employment.
The Blue Jays can only hope their first pick in Monday night’s amateur draft ultimately trends closer to the Brett-Wainwright zone than to the district occupied by Fairly, McDowell and Grigsby.
The Jays picked 29th overall in the 41st June draft in MLB history. Historically, 54% of the players picked 29th make it to the majors — for at least one game. A few, such as Brett, Wainwright and Ellis Valentine, last a long time. Others, like Mike Walker (five games) and Tom McMillan (two) barely qualify for the proverbial cup of coffee.
Toronto lost its regular firstround pick for having signed Russell Martin to a five-year, US$82 million contract. The Jays received the 29th pick as compensation for having lost free agent Melky Cabrera to the White Sox.
The draft is always a crapshoot. Roughly 86% of those drafted will not reach the big leagues. While 88% of players drafted No. 1 overall have made it, the lower you draft, the lower the likelihood that your guy will make it.
And 29 is not a particularly happy number. While players drafted 29th have compiled a combined 254.1 WAR (wins above replacement), according to Baseball-Reference. com, Brett and Wainwright account for 49% of that total.
On the other hand, every draft produces sleepers and late bloomers. Jose Bautista was picked in the 20th round, Russell Martin in the 17 th and Edwin Encarnacion and Aaron Loup in the ninth.
Herewith, a look at how the Jays have fared with their top picks in recent drafts. The 2007-2012 period was chosen because if a player makes it to the majors, it typically takes him four to six years.