Employers forecast ‘mild’ hiring climate in third quarter, Manpower survey finds

OTTAWA • Job creation in Canada blew past forecasts in May, but many of the companies doing the hiring remain only mildly optimistic about the pace of growth in the coming months.

About 20 per cent of employers plan to increase their staff between July and September this year, according to the latest Manpower Employment Outlook Survey, released Tuesday.

That’s roughly the same level as the previous three months, but down one per cent from the third quarter of 2014.

“What we’re forecasting, as per the previous quarter, is a mild hiring climate for the upcoming third quarter as well,” said Michelle Dunnill, Manpower’s regional manager for Toronto, Mississauga, and Markham, Ont.

“(But) when we look at the overall 20 per cent of Canadian employers who are looking or planning to hire in the upcoming quarter — although we’re saying it’s a mild hiring climate — it’s still good. It isn’t a terrible outlook at all.”

As for staffing cutbacks, five per cent of respondents said they plan to reduce employee numbers over the next few months, while 75 per cent expect employee levels to remain the same and another one per cent are unsure about their hiring intentions.

The survey of 1,900 employers across Canada, conducted between April 15 and 28, found “some real solid lifts in finance and insurance, especially in southern Ontario,” Dunnill said.

“Real estate and transportation and public utilities sectors are going to remain the strongest areas. So, we’re really seeing a mirror of the previous quarter.”

Hiring in the wholesale and retail sector is also forecast to grow in the third quarter, as well as the services industry.

On the flip side, the survey found job prospects will decline among durable goods manufacturers from the previous quarter and a year earlier. Non-durable manufacturers showed little or no hiring plans.

Manpower said prospects for construction jobs will remain “positive” over the next three months, but weaker than in recent quarters.

Limited job creation is likely in public administration and education.

Mining will also be weak, given its traditional sector grouping with oil and gas extraction — heavily hit by the plunge in crude prices, particularly in Alberta.

Regionally, the Manpower data show “favourable outlooks specifically in North York and Scarborough (in the Toronto area), Quebec City, New Brunswick and British Columbia, as well as Nova Scotia, (particularly) Cape Breton,” Dunnill said.

“So, there are parts of Canada where jobs outlooks look quite favourable.

“And then we’ve got pockets of Canada — such as Niagara Falls, London and St. Catharines (Ont.) — where it’s not as favourable looking,” she added.

The Manpower poll was conducted ahead of the May employment report, released Friday by Statistics Canada.

The official government data showed overall job creation during the month of about 59,000, the highest level since October 2014 when 62,200 people found work. Economists had forecast just 10,000 new jobs in May.

The StatsCan report pointed to stronger Ontario job creation in May, followed by British Columbia and Nova Scotia.

However, the federal agency said manufacturing topped growth in May, while construction suffered.

There are parts of Canada where jobs outlooks look quite favourable