Iran power struggle could derail nuclear deal

• There are mounting fears a power struggle in Tehran over the powerful position of Supreme Leader could derail attempts to negotiate a deal over Iran’s nuclear program.

Concerns have grown over the health of the regime’s current Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, after the 75-year-old underwent a series of operations for prostate cancer. Recent reports in the Iranian media have suggested his condition is terminal and that the man who has dominated Iranian politics since the death of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the revolution’s founding father in 1989, only has months to live.

Western diplomats involved in the nuclear negotiations believe the frail health of Khameini, the country’s leading hardliner, has prompted fierce infighting between rival contenders as they jostle for the succession.

Western diplomats say that one of Khamenei’s proteges, Sadeq Larijani, the head of Iran’s judicial system and a noted hardliner, is positioning himself to be appointed the new Supreme Leader when the Assembly of Experts comes to make its decision.

Larijani, 54, is the brother of Ali Larijani, Iran’s former chief nuclear negotiator, who is now chairman of the Majlis, the Iranian parliament. He is reported to be conducting a purge against more moderate ayatollahs who might put their names forward to become the country’s Supreme Leader.

For example, Larijani has begun a judicial inquiry into allegations of corruption made against a moderate ayatollah, Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi, who is a leading ally of Iran’s former moderate president, Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani. By starting the inquiry, diplomats believe Larijani has effectively ended Shahroudi’s chances of standing for election.

The political infighting in Tehran is causing particular concern for Western diplomats involved in negotiations to resolve the standoff over Iran’s nuclear program. June 30 has been set as the date for a final agreement to be reached, whereby Iran agrees to scale down the elements of its program that could be used to develop nuclear weapons, in return for the easing of crippling economic sanctions. After years of negotiations, U.S. officials believe a deal is within reach.

But any final agreement negotiated between Iran and representatives of the so-called P5+1 — the five permanent members of the UN Security Council and Iran — needs to be ratified by the Supreme Leader.

“With so many people jockeying for position, the hardliners will be tempted to prove their revolutionary credentials by vetoing any deal with the U.S.,” a senior Western diplomat said.