Your Leafs draft viewing guide
Potential trades are the real calling cards
More than 10 weeks have passed since the Toronto Maple Leafs played a game, a span of 21/2 months in which the team has fired, hired and reshuffled across its hockey operations department. The Leafs fired their general manager (Dave Nonis), and have yet to name a replacement. They also fired their coach (Peter Horachek), and will spend US$50 million over eight years on his replacement (Mike Babcock). Starting this week, the work begins on rebuilding the roster. It will start in earnest with the NHL Draft, on Friday, and will likely continue with trades and free agency. After a quiet spring, how are the Leafs are positioned to reclaim their spot at the top of the news cycle?
WHAT KIND OF DRAFT PICKS DO THEY HAVE?
Barring a trade, Toronto will pick twice in the first round. The Leafs have the fourth pick, and they also have the 24th pick, which is from Nashville. The Predators surrendered their first-round pick in March, sending it to the Leafs as part of the trade that sent defenceman Cody Franson and forward Mike Santorelli back to Nashville. Toronto does not have any picks in the second round, having flipped its spot to the Los Angeles Kings two years ago in a trade for goaltender Jonathan Bernier. The Leafs will pick once in the third round (65th overall) and twice in the fourth (95th and 107th), followed by one pick in each of the final three rounds (125th, 155th and 185th).
WHO WILL THEY GET AT NO. 4?
Connor McDavid will go first, to the Edmonton Oilers, and Jack Eichel will go second, to the Buffalo Sabres. The uncertainty starts with the Arizona Coyotes, at three, meaning the Leafs have had to prepare for a handful of scenarios. Most experts have narrowed it down to two main possibilities: Dylan Strome, a centre with the Erie Otters, or Mitch Marner, a centre from the London Knights. Strome led the Ontario Hockey League with 129 points in 68 games, spending part of the season on a line with McDavid. Marner finished second in OHL scoring, with 126 points. Mark Hunter, now director of player personnel for the Leafs, drafted Marner in London. In a recent interview with TSN, though, he said Strome “oozes hockey sense,” and that “his thought process is next to none in the draft.”
HAVE THE LEAFS DONE WELL, HISTORICALLY, AT THE DRAFT?
In a word: No. Part of this has to do with the luck inherent in any draft — in 2002, the Chicago Blackhawks used their first-round pick on defenceman Anton Babchuk, not eventual Stanley Cup MVP Duncan Keith, who they got in the second round — and part has to do with incompetence. Remember 1989? That was when the Leafs had three picks in the first round and opted to use all three on players from the same junior team in Belleville: Scott Thornton, Rob Pearson and Steve Bancroft. Toronto drafted 10 more players that year, and only one ever played a single game in the NHL. In 2003, the year of the super draft —E ric Staal, Ryan Getzlaf and Shea Weber among those eligible — the Leafs did not have a pick in the first round, and came away with defenceman John Doherty, who never played a game.
IS THE DRAFT GOING TO BE THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE WEEKEND?
While getting this pick right is obviously critical for a team in the early stage of a rebuild, the draft might actually serve as the undercard for long-suffering Leafs fans. The intrigue, the real interest, is around trades. There has been widespread speculation that winger Phil Kessel and captain Dion Phaneuf could be on the move. Some of that stems from remarks Leafs president Brendan Shanahan made in his season-ending news conference, after he was asked about the so-called leadership group in the dressing room. “They know it, we know it, everyone in here knows it; the job didn’t get done,” he told reporters. Kessel and Phaneuf both have limited no-trade clauses, and both carry hefty contracts. Kessel carries an $8 million cap hit through the 2021-22 season, while Phaneuf comes in at $7 million through the 2020-21 season.
WHY KESSEL?
Only four players have scored more goals over the six seasons Kessel has spent with the Leafs: Alex Ovechkin (256), Steven Stamkos (253), Corey Perry (205) and Rick Nash (184). Kessel has 181 goals, and he has scored those goals without the benefit of playing alongside a bona fide No. 1 centre. He is lightning fast and surprisingly durable, given his apparent distaste for off-season conditioning. It is hard to score goals in the NHL, and it is exceedingly difficult to score goals on a consistent basis. So why trade Kessel? He is 27, turning 28 this fall. If the Leafs do not expect to contend for another three-to-five years, as has been reported, he would likely be past the prime of his career. It makes more sense to cash in the asset now. According to TSN, Kessel has indicated he would accept a trade to one of these eight teams: Philadelphia, Minnesota, Boston, Chicago, Montreal, Los Angeles, Pittsburgh and the New York Rangers.
WHO ELSE COULD MOVE?
Winger Joffrey Lupul and centre Tyler Bozak are among the other candidates. The Leafs have the cap space to be creative with their moves, able to absorb a few bad contracts in the short term. Unloading either Kessel or Phaneuf might leave them in need of a contract or two just to get to the salary floor, which has been set at $52.8 million. According to the salary tracking website generalfanager.com, the Leafs are sitting with a cap hit of $54 million, with a handful of players — such as restricted free agents Nazem Kadri and Jonathan Bernier — still to sign.