Moshe Ma’oz,
professor of Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies, Hebrew University and adviser to former Israeli prime ministers
Q What is Russia up to in Syria?
A Russia would like to deepen its hold on the Eastern Mediterranean, especially in Syria. This has been an interest of Russia for centuries. In the beginning of the 18th century, Russia sent a fleet to the Mediterranean that landed around Beirut. Communist Russia was the first to supply weapons via Czechoslovakia to Syria. Now, Russia’s main targets, as far as I understand, are to safeguard Russian bases, to help Bashar survive, to expand its hold over half of Syria and to hold back American influence in the region.
Q How does their presence change the regional dynamic?
A For one, it helps the regime in Syria. No. 2, in my opinion, Russia helps what I would call the Shia Crescent, including Iran, Iraq, Kuwait and Syria. Russia would help Iran — a Shia country — to enhance its role in Syria, too. Iran has militias, all kinds of crooks and warriors there. The other camp affected is the Sunni countries, including Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, the Emirates and Egypt. They see Iran as a big threat. Iran is expanding its hold, in Iraq especially. It has influence in Kuwait, Bahrain, Lebanon and Syria. The Sunni Muslim leaders are scared of the Shia.
Q What is the impact on Israel in particular?
A Two Jews, four views. Some people say it’s good. Why? To enhance Bashar because it can bring stability. This is a devil that we know. We can work with him. I beg to differ. Bashar is a butcher and we, with the Jewish faith, cannot work with such a killer. Also, his alliance with Iran and Hezbollah is very dangerous to Israel, more dangerous than (ISIL), not only to Israel, but to the region. It also means that Russia might prevent Israel from flying over Syria and attacking convoys that carry weapons to Hezbollah, which is a deadly enemy of Israel. Israel has lost here. The game is for Russia.
Q What is the worst-case scenario that Israel could be facing?
A A combination of Iranian, Syrian and Hezbollah troops would be on the Israeli northern border and the Golan. Syria is not a strong country, but Iran, which is a super regional power heading towards nuclear capability, has declared time and again that it wants to eliminate Israel, as has Hezbollah.
Q How do you see this playing out?
A Russia is taking full advantage of the situation to expand its presence in this region. The Russian foothold is in the northwest of Syria around Latakia and Tartus, but why expand further? Bashar is in Damascus and they want to protect him. They might fight ISIL, but, in the process, they’re going to hold a large part of Syria, which is dangerous to America, to the West, to Israel and to the Sunni Arab countries.