Bessma Momani,
Q What is Russia up to in Syria?
A Well, I think it is, one, an attempt of the Putin government to divert attention away from the annexation of Crimea, of the forces in Ukraine. It is an attempt by Putin to embarrass the Americans by saying that, “We are here to fight terrorism because you can’t handle it on your own.” I think it’s also an attempt to shore up the Assad regime. If the government falls, they have an important role to shape the future government. The Russians are now obviously going to be expecting an important role at the table because they have an airbase there and they’re putting troops on the ground.
Q How does their presence change the regional dynamic?
A I think it’s going to lead to a prolonged and lengthened Assad regime. I think it’s going to create a larger exodus of refugees. I think it will most likely cause a challenge to a western coalition who may be battling ISIL and the risks of having some collision becomes higher. It may also encourage regional governments to acquire more weapons. It’s overall very negative.
Q What is the impact on Israel in particular?
A Well, Netanyahu is going to want assurances that some of these weapons are not going into Hezbollah’s hands, which is the one fear that they have — potentially that this would create a conduit for Iranian transport of arms and shipments to Hezbollah. I think they are indifferent on Assad. I would probably argue that the Netanyahu government would prefer to see Assad in power. It historically has been a very quiet border, but others would argue that Netanyahu has supported some elements of the militarized opposition in Syria.
Q What is the worst-case scenario that Israel could be facing?
A I don’t think it’s really about Israel, to be quite honest with you. I don’t think it’s the country that’s most affected. It’s really the Syrian people who are most affected by Russian involvement.