Our place in world waning but Harper not to blame: poll

Mulcair comes out on top on climate, human rights

Twice as many Canadians are likely to say this country’s reputation in the world has worsened in the last decade than improved, according to a new poll.

But when asked who best represents Canada on the world stage, Conservative Leader Stephen Harper still edges out his rivals.

The Angus Reid Institute poll results come as the three main party leaders square off Monday night in the firstever federal election debate devoted to foreign policy.

“It’s been clear to this point that the issue preoccupying the minds of voters is the economy,” said Shachi Kurl, the institute’s senior vice-president. “That said, in what continues to be a tight three-way race, many issues — including those related to Canada’s place in the world — have the potential to drive a wedge between the winner and losers, including ones the politicians them- selves don’t anticipate.”

Asked how Canada’s world reputation compares to 10 years ago, 41 per cent of respondents said it was worse, while 21 per cent said it was better. The rest said it was the same or weren’t sure.

About half said Canada was “falling behind” in terms of military power and diplomatic influence. A majority, however, believe Canada is “keeping up” when it comes to foreign aid.

Even though voters believe the coun- try’s reputation has worsened under Harper, they do not seem convinced his main rivals could improve it.

Respondents chose Harper over NDP Leader Tom Mulcair and Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau when asked who would represent Canada best on the world stage, particularly on terrorism and trade matters. Mulcair came out on top if the subject was climate change and human rights.

“We’ve seen the Conservatives build a conscious campaign around trying to showcase the Conservative leader as a winner and leader on the economy. You wonder, perhaps, have they overlooked the foreign issue?” Kurl said.

Harper has staked out positions that resonate not only with his base but also with a good chunk of voters who support rival parties, Kurl said.

Sixty-one per cent of respondents favour continuing Canada’s participation in the combat mission against the Islamic State. Eighty-seven per cent of Conservative backers take this view, as do 52 per cent of Liberal backers. Not far behind are 46 per cent of NDP backers.

On the Syrian refugee crisis, the Conservatives’ pledge to resettle 10,000 refugees by September 2016 received the most support (32 per cent). The Liberals’ proposal to resettle 25,000 refugees by January 2016 got the least support (19 per cent) and the NDP plan to resettle 46,000 refugees by 2019, including 10,000 this year, fared only slightly better (21 per cent).

Another 28 per cent said Canada should “do nothing,” suggesting voter fatigue on the issue, Kurl said.

Canadians are divided on the Keystone XL pipeline between Alberta and the U.S. Gulf Coast with 53 per cent in favour and 47 per cent opposed.

What’s interesting, Kurl says, is that while Conservative supporters are in lockstep with Harper’s pro-Keystone stance (81 per cent support the pipeline), Trudeau’s support for the project puts him at odds with half of his own supporters.

Mulcair’s conditional support for the pipeline potentially puts him at odds with 69 per cent of NDP supporters who oppose it. But he has “wriggle room,” Kurl says, because he has stated that he will only support a pipeline that carries oil refined in Canada, not raw bitumen.

The online survey of 1,487 Canadians was conducted Sept. 22-24. A probability sample of this size carries a margin of error of plus-or-minus 2.5 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

The issue preoccupying the minds of voters is the economy