Down to the wire in bellwether Waterloo
Southern Ontario city has voted for the party that formed the government in nine of the past 11 elections
National Post columnist John Ivison is travelling across Canada to chronicle how election battles are folding by region. Today, he tackles the tight race in Waterloo, Ont.
Asolid, if unexciting, Conservative; an energetic but untested Liberal; an experienced but toiling New Democrat.
That is not the national race between Messrs Harper, Trudeau and Mulcair.
Rather, it is the contest shaping up in the booming Ontario city of Waterloo — a tight battle between sevenyear incumbent Tory, Peter Braid, Liberal rookie Bardish Chagger and long-time city councillor turned NDP candidate, Diane Freeman.
The reason why Canadians should pay attention is that the city of Waterloo, in its various incarnations, is the ultimate bellwether, voting for the side that won in nine of the last 11 elections.
It will surprise no one that the race is too close to call, least of all Braid. He beat long-time Liberal MP, Andrew Telegdi, by just 17 votes in 2008, growing the margin to 2,000 votes in 2011.
With polls showing the Conservatives and Liberals neck and neck in Ontario, the advantage may have shifted to the Grits — this is traditional Liberal territory, once represented by William Lyon Mackenzie King.
But Braid has built a good reputation in a city where things are going pretty well, thanks to its burgeoning tech sector, its well-regarded universities, its traditional financial services industry and its advanced manufacturing capacity. Unemployment is around 5.8 per cent, well below the national average of seven per cent.
There used to be a net outflow of people from Waterloo on a daily basis, as commuters travelled to Toronto. Now, the flow is the other way, as companies like Google bus in employees from out of town.
Braid, 51, has his running shoes on as he heads out to canvass in the city’s leafy north end — a neighbourhood of large lots and family dogs, perfect terrain for a man his team call “the Dog Whisperer.”
“Every politician should win in a close election. I put everything through the filter of a 17-vote win and keep working hard,” he says.
He encounters a smallbusiness owner who has a store in nearby St. Jacobs. His message of balanced budgets and reduced small-business income tax (a measure being offered by all three main parties) is well-received and she pledges her support. “It’s a scary election — I’m scared of the other candidates,” she says.
On the next street, the benefit of having deep roots in the community become apparent.
“You coached my daughter’s hockey team. I al - ways vote for you,” says one woman.
But she brings up an issue that is likely to be heard by all candidates in the home stretch of the election — the massive Trans Pacific Partnership deal reached over the weekend.
The voter says her daughter is planning to marry a dairy farmer and she is worried about the impact of the TPP deal on family farms.
She is al s o concerned about the prospect of American milk flooding the Can- adian market. “I don’t want American dairy coming here — that’s horrible.”
Braid tries to reassure her that the supply management system will be protected and that a deal would create opportunities for Canadian producers to sell all around the world.
“We won’t sign a deal unless it is in Canada’s best interests,” he says.
The lady seems placated and promises she will deliver the four votes in her house.
Much as Justin Trudeau provides a youthful foil to his stolid Conservative rival, so 34-year-old Bardish Chagger offers a vibrant alternative to Braid.
The daughter of Sikh immigrants, she worked as executive assistant to Telegdi. Born, raised and educated in the city, more recently she has worked at the K-W Multicultural Centre. While she may lack the formal experience of her two opposing candidates, she compensates for it with sheer audacity.
In a new subdivision, she encounters Mikey on the doorstep. He tells her he is not interested in talking. “I hate how government takes money out of my pocket — it drives me bananas,” he says, as he makes to close the door on her.
Undeterred, she launches into her sales pitch, emphasizing how she would represent her constituents, not just repeat the leader’s message. When she concludes, he’s clearly impressed.
“Well done,” he says. “I will consider you.” He later sends out a Tweet — “Bardish passed the front door test — hard work pays off. You have my vote.”
From the briefest of snapshots canvassing with all three main candidates, it seems clear the vote for change is coalescing around the Liberals, confirming an Abacus Data poll that Trudeau is the candidate seen as representing ambitious change among NDP-Liberal switchers.
Diane Freeman, a councillor since 2006, was a card-carrying Liberal until the party voted with the government on its anti-terror legislation.
She was acclaimed as the local candidate when the NDP were riding high in the spring, just after Rachel Notley won Alberta’s provincial election.
But these are mor e troubled days for the NDP. As she tours a neighbourhood of environmentally conscious seniors, teachers and academics close to downtown, she hears niggling complaints from people who should be her strongest supporters.
One older couple point to the Toyota Prius in their driveway. “We’re big environmentalists and we’d like to see the environment policies explained a bit more,” the husband says.
His neighbour also declares her support for Freeman but says she is worried about the NDP policies on Senate abolition and the Clarity Act (the New Democrats say 50 per cent of the population plus one voting for independence would be sufficient grounds for Quebec’s separation).
Freeman is a good candidate — an engineer with an environmental background, she helped set up a not-forprofit daycare in the city while on council. She is a long shot to take this riding, just as it is starting to look like an NDP win nationally is becoming increasingly unlikely.
But my sense on the doorstep is that she will retain enough of her vote to make life difficult for Chagger. The progressive vote split could be Braid’s salvation once again.
It’s a scenario that could have a bearing on the broader election. After all, as goes Waterloo, so goes the nation.
I put everything through the filter of a 17-vote win and keep working