We need a Plan B
It was one of the largest protest marches of its kind in the U. S. Thousands took to the streets across the country to draw attention to the challenges of climate change in 2014. UN Secretary General Ban Kimoon expressed the demands of a frightened generation. We must act, he said, because there is no “Plan B. There is no Planet B.” The same message was repeated in Paris during the latest round of climate talks and even plastered on the side of the Eiffel Tower: “No Plan B.”
The Paris conference, despite all the rhetoric and handshakes, failed to deliver any real agreement to reduce carbon emissions. The countries have stated an ambition to keep warming to 1.5C, well below the 2C that scientists warn would lead to a catastrophic tipping point in global climate systems. Experts doubt this target can even be achieved. If this sounds pessimistic, we don’t mean it to be. Climate change is a hard collective problem, and the Paris deal, at best, is a small sign that humanity is prepared to take real, concerted action to safeguard its own future. A very small sign.
In the meantime, we can afford to be neither nihilistic nor naive. There really has to be a Plan B.
We have to get serious about back- up plans to address climate change if the world is not able to slow down its carbon production, and to do so, we must welcome unconventional ideas. The way out of this mess will not be to send a global population of seven billion back into the forests to live in mud huts, nor to deny the developing world the chance to better its own standard of living. Nor will it be embracing infantile hopes of some glorious socio-economic revolution that strikes down the evil capitalists and their gas-guzzling SUVs.
As we have in the past, we must embrace our own ingenuity to solve the world’s problems. Governments can set standards, draw regulations, provide capital and, most importantly, educate a new generation of eager scientists and engineers. But freedom and market forces are our way forward.
Technologies like wind and solar panels, although still reliant on government subsidies, are becoming cheaper and more reliable. There is genuine cause to hope that in the near term, these technologies may be economically viable without the need of substantial government aid. Add to this, the promise of bioengineering and geothermal energy production, hydrogen fuel cells, cogeneration and carbon sequestration. None of these technologies are currently able to replace fossil fuels on a scale large enough to decarbonize an entire economy. Governments that have tried to pretend that they are — we’re looking at you, Ontario Liberals — have put far greater dents in their own economic prospects than they have global carbon emissions. But they are worth watching. Indeed, even though the plans offered at Paris predict warming of 2.7C by the end of the century, negotiators expressed hope that we would find a way to stall emissions well before then thanks to new technology.
The world, in other words, is banking on our ingenuity.
In addition to alternative energy, we can’t let ourselves be scared by the mere prospect of climate engineering — which is to say, actively taking steps that would serve to cool the Earth’s climate. Some of the proposals sound outlandish — but they’re worth study. Scientists are already looking at novel new ways to reduce carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and to, for example, increase the brightness of clouds to reflect more sunlight back into space. These ideas are rather more conjectural than wondering about slapping a solar array on every roof, but they’re worth considering — again, as Plan Bs.
Lastly, there is nothing like a crisis to help to inspire extraordinary advancements: it’s time we seriously consider some form of sustained human presence in the solar system. This is not a crazy idea, and we should stop thinking of it as such. We have the technology, right now, today, to start planning an orbiting space colony. All evidence suggests that there is enough material and water in the nearest asteroid belt to sustain a human population into infinity.
On a long enough timeline, a mass extinction event is inevitable — whether by external forces, such as a catastrophic impact with an asteroid, or by our own folly. Whether it be in century or in 1,000 centuries, humanity’s future will include more than just our wonderful blue marble of a world. Understanding this, why wouldn’t we begin the grand project of our own long-term survival sooner, rather than later? The threat from climate change may be overstated, or it may be rapidly solved by economic changes, technological advances, or both. But the fact still remains that a species confined to a single planet is vulnerable in a way a dispersed civilization simply is not. This is not a project for today or tomorrow … but today is as good a time as any to start thinking about it.
So yes, by all means, let’s figure out a way to properly care for the planet and everyone on it. But let’s also consider Plan B.
Why shouldn’t humanity consider a slow but deliberate push into the solar system, off of our beautiful blue marble?