After fall of Ramadi, Mosul could take a while
LONDON • Iraq Monday pledged to use newly reclaimed Ramadi as a springboard to take ISIL’s stronghold of Mosul, although experts warned it could be another year before ground forces were ready.
After a week of urban combat, Iraqi troops raised the national flag over Ramadi’s government compound yesterday, declaring victory against a force of several hundred fighters from Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant.
The victory — the latest in a string of ISIL setbacks in both Iraq and Syria — was hailed as symbolic by the Iraqi government and its U.S. backers, who provided air support.
But claims by Iraq’s parliamentary speaker, Salim al- Juburi, that it would be a “launch pad” for the taking of Mosul in northwest Iraq appeared premature. Security analysts said that unlike in Ramadi, where ISIL had left only a small force, Mosul would be a Stalingrad- style battle contested by thousands of ISIL’s best troops.
“Mosul will be the main prize for both sides in this conflict, and so it won’t be any time soon — not in the first half of 2016, and probably not the second half either,” said Toby Dodge, an Iraq expert with the London School of Economics, who has just returned from a visit to Baghdad.
That would mean the city could remain in ISIL hands until 2017, while the Iraqi army — which melted away when ISIL captured Mosul 18 months ago — regains enough strength to retake it.
Similarly, a few hundred determined ISIL fighters routed a much bigger Iraqi army presence in May to overrun Ramadi.
A turning point in the fight to regain the city came Monday morning, when ISIL gun positions within the government compound finally fell silent, although Iraqi army commanders said Monday night they were still dealing with small pockets of resistance.
They said that more than 300 booby traps had been left in and around the government compound area alone.
One Ramadi resident, speaking by phone, said that ISIL fighters had apologized for “abandoning” residents but had “promised to be back.”
“Some of the citizens went back to their homes and have put white flags on rooftops awaiting the Iraqi army arrival,” he said.
However, while government troops danced in the battlescarred streets, and state television showed celebrations in Baghdad and elsewhere, there were concerns that it was not quite the showcase triumph it seemed.
The Iraqi authorities did not divulge casualty figures, but medics said that close to 100 wounded government f i ghters were brought to Baghdad hospitals on Sunday alone.
According to Dodge, U. S. commanders were frustrated at the slow pace of the attack. “If you speak to the Iraqi army, they say that is because of lack of U.S. air support, while if you speak to the U. S. military, it is because of the lack of leadership and lack of capacity. But either way, the Iraqi army is currently very slow and riskaverse, and that is why taking Mosul will take a lot longer than people think,” he said.
Col. Steve Warren, a U. S. military spokesman in Bagh-
Mosul will be the main prize for both sides in this conflict
dad, said “today’s success is a proud moment for Iraq.
“The clearance of the government centre is a significant accomplishment and is the result of many months of hard work by the Iraqi army, the counterterrorism service, the Iraqi air force, local and federal police, and tribal fighters,” Warren said.
He said the U.S .- led coalition has carried out more than 630 airstrikes, in addition to training security forces and providing both advice and equipment to clear bombs and booby traps.
Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al- Abadi delivered a speech in which he hailed the advance, saying it had killed “hundreds” of militants and “fulfilled the promise to defeat Daesh in Ramadi,” referring to the ISIL group by its Arabic acronym. He said 2016 would be “the year of the final victory and the end of the existence of Daesh on Iraqi territory.”