HALFWAY HOME
In the first quarter of the NBA season, there was precisely one story worth discussing: the excellence of the Golden State Warriors. There was no shame in that, since the Warriors were playing historic basketball, winning the first 24 games of the season, a record. That they did it in the wake of a championship was astounding. Weren’t teams coming off a title supposed to ease back into things, lacking the proper motivation until they could sniff the post- season? Talk of the 72-10 Bulls popped up, and justifiably. It probably will once more in March, if the Warriors are still rolling.
The discussion has become a bit more varied since then. Perhaps we have become a bit more immune to the Warriors, which would be a shame because they were 36- 2 heading into Wednesday’s game in Denver. It is incredible. However, between organizational turmoil in Brooklyn and Philadelphia, the Spurs and Cavaliers raising their levels and the shocking relevance of the Knicks, the league’s storylines have multiplied in the past month.
We are nearly at the midway point of the season. Here are eight lessons learned from the first half. Coaching Matters More Than We Think Once DeAndre Jordan changed his mind and opted to remain a Clipper, the Dallas Mavericks had, by consensus, one of the worst free agency periods in recent history. The Detroit Pistons have been perhaps the least inspiring team in the league over the last half-decade. The Orlando Magic have been collecting young talent through the draft for years, but never appeared cohesive.
Nearing the midway point of the season, all three teams are in playoff position. Rick Carlisle has proven to be one of the best coaches in the league and has the Mavericks behind only f our teams that consider themselves championship contenders in the Western Conference. That is happening despite swapping in Zaza Pachulia for Jordan (and Tyson Chandler, last year’s starting centre) and using the pasttheir- prime combination of Deron Williams and Raymond Felton in the backcourt, with Monta Ellis gone to Indiana. Jeff Van Gundy is remaking his Orlando model of a pick-and-roll machine surrounded by three- point shooters, with Andre Drummond replacing Dwight Howard inside. The Pistons have the eighth-best defence in the league. As for the Magic, despite a roster full of duplication, they are hanging around the playoff picture, with Scott Skiles increasing his team’s competitiveness, just as he has done early in each stop in his coaching career.
In Miami (Erik Spoelstra), Indiana (Frank Vogel) and, of course, San Antonio ( Gregg Popovich), coaches are innovating on the fly with altered rosters. Sometimes, it seems like having a flexible mind and a clear vision can be mutually exclusive. Several coaches are proving otherwise.
THERE’S FINALLY MORE THAN JUST THE MIGHTY WARRIORS TO TALK ABOUT IN THE NBA
We do not know who the ascendant young team of the league is — or if there even is one
Coming into the year, the Utah Jazz and New Orleans Pelicans seemed like the two teams most likely to vault from promising to legitimately good, if a step below true championship contention. The Jazz had a dominant defence and a wonderful coach in Quin Snyder, while the Pelicans had Anthony Davis, ready to devour the world.
It has not worked out like that. The Jazz are holding on to the eighth playoff spot, but in a weakened Western Conference. With French deterrent Rudy Gobert missing 20 games, the Jazz rank just 17 th defensively. Meanwhile, despite Davis’s continued dominance — although he has not been quite at last year’s level — New Orleans has struggled, besieged by injuries. They will be in the lottery in May.
Minnesota, with Andrew Wiggins and Karl Towns in the fold, still seem like the young team with the brightest future. However, they are 12-26, and still a few seasons away from a breakthrough. Utah should improve with Gobert healthy. Regardless, there is no young insurgent on the scene.
Rookies can contribute on good teams
The draft can seem like a waste of time for good teams with a sense of urgency. It is very rare that first- year players are developed and skilled enough to contribute right away, meaning that drafting for need is foolish if the short-term is the priority.
That is still overwhelmingly true, but there are exceptions. Obviously, Kristaps Porzingis’s season in New York has been a revelation. There are a bunch of reasons the Knicks have gone from awful to average in a year’s time, but Porzingis’s unexpected sturdiness from the start has been at the core of things. On a smaller scale, Bobby Portis, the 22nd-overall pick, stepped in for Chicago while Joakim Noah was out of the lineup and was a boon to bench units. Justise Winslow, picked 10th, is already emerging as a wonderful perimeter defender in Miami.
Patience still rules when considering rookies. However, given the right circumstances, they can contribute immediately — and not just with empty statistics on bad teams, either.
Free agency is overrated
An obvious caveat: Most free agents this off- season re- signed with their previous teams. Of the top 20 free agents last summer, as ranked by SB Nation, only three changed teams.
Let’s examine the big names that changed teams, though. LaMarcus Aldridge was certainly a home run for the Spurs. Greg Monroe was the most prominent player to move other than him, and the Bucks have regressed while the Pistons, who let him walk, have improved. DeMarre Carroll has been injured, and not a meaningful part of the Raptors’ solid season. Lou Williams is wasting away as a Laker, while Chandler has been out of place and frequently injured for the disastrous Suns.
There have been some low-key success stories. Arron Afflalo and Robin Lopez have helped stabilize the Knicks; Amir Johnson has been a steal for the Celtics. No team significantly changed their outlook for the better in this past year’s free agency, though, aside from the Spurs. ( Cleveland did OK in July 2014, for what it is worth.)
The conferences are evening out, but not yet even
The Eastern Conference’s eighth playoff seed is currently two games above . 500, while the Western equivalent is three games below even. The last time the East’s final playoff team had more wins than the West’s was the lockout- shortened 1999 season. More than that, in the previous eight seasons, the average disparity between the West’s lowest seed and the East’s was more than eight wins. In interconference games, the West has a minuscule 109-106 advantage.
That is not to say the Western Conference is suddenly inferior. Of the top five title favourites, according to recent odds from Bodog, four play in the Western Conference. By nearly every metric, Golden State and San Antonio are the two best teams in the league. That depth is disappearing, however, with Memphis, Houston, Phoenix and New Orleans all enduring disappointing seasons. Only the Rockets seem poised for a second- half revival.
Three-point shooting is not magic
The NBA is veering away from mid- range jumpers and toward three- pointers and free throws. The two most accurate teams from deep in the league, Golden State (42.6 per cent) and San Antonio (38.2) are also the best two teams in the league. Therefore, excelling from long-range means excelling, period.
Not quite. Phoenix, Washington, Sacramento and Milwaukee are all in the top-10 in accuracy, and they are all having tough years. Portland and Philadelphia are third and seventh, respectively, in three- point attempts, and will not sniff the playoffs. Oklahoma City and San Antonio (despite their accuracy) are 23rd and 26th, respectively, in total three- point attempts, and 22nd and 25th in total makes. They rank second and third in offensive efficiency. Which is to say, there are many ways to create a dynamic, productive offence.
Tanking is not a widespread problem
Everybody knows the 76ers have accepted poor performance until they eventually hit it big in the draft — and even they have taken some half steps toward normalcy in the past month. Who else is utterly unconcerned with winning? Which other teams have committed to selling off contributing veterans in order to both clear room for younger players and rack up a few extra losses? ( The Nets and Lakers would probably like to, but they find themselves in miserable positions of their own doing, at least for the rest of this season.)
As we get closer to the trade deadline, teams such as Minnesota, Denver and Phoenix will probably explore such moves. Some of the worst teams in the league — the Pelicans, Bucks and Suns, for example — had legitimate playoff aspirations before the season began. The reality is that very few teams court losing for years at a time. It would be better if zero teams did, but full-season tanking is just not a major problem in the NBA.
There is no clear- cut favourite to win the title
The most interesting story in the league as of now: The Warriors might top the Bulls’ record, and not even be the best team in the league by many metrics.
Any concerns about the Spurs incorporating Aldridge into their culture have been wiped away. They have the best defence in the league, 4.6 points per 100 possessions better than second- place Boston. That is bigger than the margin between the Celtics and Memphis, who rank 16th. The Spurs also have the best net rating of any team, thanks to far more blowout wins than any other squad. Like Golden State, they have also not lost at home yet.
And then there are the Cavaliers. They are 9-1 in games Kyrie Irving has played in. They are destroying teams when Irving, LeBron James and Kevin Love share the floor, outscoring opponents 406- 345 in 174 total minutes. The Thunder are probably a tier below those three teams, but they are 27-12, and have two of the 10 best players on the planet — and they are finally both healthy at the same time.
The Warriors are likely still the favourites. It just is not as overwhelmingly obvious as it was a month ago.