MacKay, O’Leary top Tory leadership poll
Front-runners in statistical tie at roughly 25%
TORONTO • The rules have yet to be set and no candidates are formally in the race, but Peter MacKay and Kevin O’Leary are essentially tied in support for the Conservative Party of Canada leadership, a new poll suggests.
O’Leary, a bombastic businessman who has parlayed his strict capitalism into a media career on both sides of the border, openly mused last week about following Donald Trump’s lead and making the jump from reality TV to politics. MacKay, a long- time cabinet minister under former leader Stephen Harper and one of the architects of the “unite the right” movement at the end of the last century, is also thought to be pursuing a bid.
Both would have a decent chunk of existing Conservative support if they jumped into the race, reveals a Mainstreet Research poll conducted last Friday for Postmedia.
The national survey of 4,937 Canadians included about 1,400 self- identified Conservatives and, it turns out, many would welcome O’Leary into the party fold. The survey found 25 per cent of respondents would support MacKay for leader, while 23 per cent would back O’Leary. Given that segment of the poll’s margin of error (2.32 per cent, 19 times in 20) that amounts to a statistical tie between MacKay and O’Leary.
But most Conservatives are undecided in a leader- ship race that has yet to begin, at 29 per cent, and three per cent said they would support someone not included in the list.
The poll might be good news for anyone hoping to get O’Leary or MacKay into the race, but it may also be discouraging for others. Jason Kenney, former immigration minister and long considered Harper’s natural successor, garnered just eight-per-cent support, while Maxime Ber- nier and Lisa Raitt grabbed just four per cent each of respondents’ attention and Kellie Leitch trailed the pack at three per cent.
Tony Clement, f ormer Treasury Board president and another presumed candidate, was not included in the survey, nor was former i ndustry minister James Moore or Saskatchewan Premier Brad Wall — who has said he will not run for the federal leadership and is seeking re- election in his own province.
Though it’s early days, David Valentin, executive vice-president of Mainstreet Research, said the table is set for O’Leary should he decide to jump in. The former Dragons’ Den star’s support is particularly strong in Alberta, at 35 per cent, and the Prairies at 33 per cent.
“If he runs he will take up the race … in the same way Donald Trump can go to any street corner and a microphone will cover him,” Valentin said.
He also suggested O’Leary’s attack last week on Alberta Premier Rachel Notley may have been an ad hoc attempt to gauge support: “Going out and picking that fight with Rachel Notley in the context of him actually running for leadership starts to look very smart … Maybe there’s more to it than we thought.”
MacKay’s support is especially strong in Central and Atlantic Canada. At 25 per cent, he has the most backing in seat- rich Ontario, 33 per cent support in Quebec and 37 per cent in his home region of Atlantic Canada, where the Liberals gobbled up every single seat last October.
“I think it was certainly helpful for Peter MacKay that he wasn’t in the last campaign,” Valentin said.
And even within Mains t r eet, t he debate over O’Leary’s potential as a leader is raging. While Valentin said he shouldn’t be discounted and could, despite his lack of French, provide the same kind of celebrity zeal as Trump, president Quito Maggi isn’t convinced Canadians want a shark in their political waters.
“His offer to invest $1 million in the oilsands if Premier Notley resigns was disrespectful, negative; it was ignorant,” Maggi said.
“Because of his disrespectful and negative tone, which Canadians have clearly rejected in our political discourse, on taking Kevin O’Leary seriously as a political candidate or a contestant for the Conservative leadership, I am out.”
HELPFUL FOR MACKAY THAT HE WASN’T IN THE LAST CAMPAIGN.