Higher cap sets up exciting NBA summer
Cash will flood into free agents from TV deal
The NBA’s trade deadline came and went Thursday afternoon without much fanfare. There were a smattering of deals across the league, including the Los Angeles Clippers’ acquisition of Jeff Green, but none that would make a casual fan sit up and take notice.
Why is that? Because of what’s about to take place this summer, which could be the most unpredictable in NBA history.
The NBA’s salary cap is set to rise to at least US$90 million next year from US$ 70 million because of the influx of money from the league’s new television contract. That means virtually every team is going to have cap space to burn this summer. So while several stars were mentioned as players who could change addresses this week, including Houston Rockets centre Dwight Howard and Atlanta Hawks centre Al Horford, teams that were interested in them didn’t have to seek a deal. Both will hit the market this summer as unrestricted free agents.
That crazy cap increase is also why most of the teams that made moves this week did so to acquire cost certainty. The Detroit Pistons grabbed forwards Tobias Harris and Donatas Motiejunas because Harris is signed for the next three seasons and Motiejunas is a restricted free agent, giving the Pistons control over whether he stays. Cost certainty was certainly an appealing part of the Washington Wizards deciding to make one of the last trades before the deadline, moving Kris Humphries, DeJuan Blair and, most importantly, a top- nine protected firstround pick in 2016 for Markieff Morris, who is signed for a combined US$ 24 million over the next three seasons.
To put that into context of what could happen this summer, US$24 million could be the value of the first year of the deals for Toronto Raptors guard DeMar DeRozan, Charlotte Hornets forward Nicolas Batum or Memphis Grizzlies guard Mike Conley. If those contracts were being implemented this season as opposed to next, that would leave them among the five highest- paid players in the NBA. While all of them are talented, none should be at that level of compensation.
On the other hand, expiring contracts have never been less valuable in the NBA. Between the shortening of contracts in the last collective bargaining agreement in 2011 and the swelling salary cap, it’s difficult to find teams looking to shed bad contracts these days.
As if this market needed anything else to depress it further, there is Golden State’s dominance. Because the Warriors have been nearly unbeatable, there wasn’t the usual level of activity among second- tier contenders — at least outside of Green going from the Memphis Grizzlies to the Clippers for Lance Stephenson and a 2019 first- round pick. Instead, most of those teams stood pat and will wait to see how things go in the playoffs.
But if the Warriors break the 1995- 96 Chicago Bulls’ record of 72 regular season wins and win a second straight championship, there is bound to be some movement this summer. Kevin Durant is the most obvious player to watch; he can become an unrestricted free agent, though the prevailing wisdom is that he will sign a one- year deal with Oklahoma City to get on the same cycle as Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka and give himself another year to see what happens.