March 15, 2011: Syria’s AGONY begins
SYRIA MARKS THE FIFTH ANNIVERSARY OF ITS FIRST PEACEFUL PROTEST TUESDAY IN THE SHADOW OF WAR. PHILLIP ISSA LOOKS AT FIVE WAYS THE WORLD HAS CHANGED SINCE THE FIRST ARAB SPRING PROTESTS
Thousands of migrants, including this child, remain stuck at the Greece-Macedonia border as Europe shuts the door on those fleeing civil war in Syria, which began with a peaceful protest five years ago Tuesday.
RISE OF ISIL
It was in the vacuum of the deteriorating Syria conflict that a little- known and horrifically violent branch of al-Qaida grew into the foremost terror group on the planet.
In 2014, ISIL completed its takeover of the eastern Syria city of Raqqa and went on to conquer Iraq’s Mosul. It eventually took over an area straddling the countries’ border the size of Britain — absorbing weapons, wealth, and personnel along the way. The expansion went largely unchecked by the Syrian government, busy fighting opponents in its more populated regions closer to the Mediterranean coast.
ISIL has sparked deep anxieties in the region and around the world by slaughtering minorities, institutionalizing sex slavery, vanquishing state armies, and killing opponents in gruesome spectacles of violence.
The group has waged terror attacks from France to Yemen and has established a beachhead in northern Libya that could outlast its so- called “caliphate” in Syria and Iraq.
RESURGENT RUSSIA
“There is one man on this planet who can end the civil war in Syria by making a phone call, and that’s Mr. Putin,” British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond said recently.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has established a renewed Middle East foothold. Last September, after showering arms, advisers, and economic assistance on President Bashar Assad to insufficient effect, Putin sent his air force to pound the Syrian government’s opponents. Russia’s designs for Syria are still veiled, but whoever leads Syria next will largely owe their chair to Putin.
Before Syria, there was Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014, precursors to the current intervention, where Putin was unafraid to show the lengths he would go to protect perceived Russian interests. Now, Russia is positioned as a major broker in the region with significant oil and gas wealth.
EUROPE DESTABILIZED
When Europe fashioned its open border agreements late last century, it did not anticipate over a million migrants — mostly refugees from Syria — in one year alone, as happened in 2015. Thousands have died trying to cross by sea, posing a moral challenge for the continent. The stream, which continues unabated, has brought on both generosity and xenophobia, ultimately shaking the open- border arrangement to the core.
Europeans are now erecting barriers along the migrants’ Balkan route from Greece to Germany, after initially allowing entry to hundreds of thousands.
The ISIL attack on Paris in November sparked security recriminations across Europe and boosted nationalist politicians. Echoes could be heard as far away as the United States, where Republican front- runner Donald Trump shocked many by proposing a ban on Muslims entering the country.
NEIGHBOURS SUBVERTED
Europe’s migrant crisis is dwarfed by the wave of displacement that has washed into Syria’s neighbours. Turkey, Lebanon, and Jordan alone host around 4.4 million refugees from Syria; in Lebanon, they make up more than one-fifth of the population.
The Syria conflict has also ensnared militias and state actors across the region, destabilizing fragile neighbours like Lebanon and reawakening ethnic tensions in Turkey, where the Syria conflict has provoked concerns of a civil war with the Kurds.
IRAN ASCENDANT
The Syria conflict has rebalanced regional balances of power. Predominantly Shiite Iran’s sphere of influence now extends from Beirut to Tehran, with dependent governments in Baghdad and Damascus. The commander of the elite Quds Force, Gen. Qassem Soleimani, is often seen directing deployments in Syria and Iraq.
In Lebanon, Iran is represented by Hezbollah. It has sent thousands of fighters to prop up Assad in Syria. Israel glumly watches its nemesis training alongside Russian and Iranian contingents, and fortifying its position along the Jewish state’s northern border.
Saudi Arabia, the regional Sunni powerhouse, is struggling to maintain support for the mainly Sunni rebels it backs in Syria while also fighting Iran-supported Shiite rebels in Yemen.