REPUBLICAN SLUGFEST IN WISCONSIN
MILWAUKEE• Wisconsin has become an unexpected battleground for Donald Trump and the conglomeration of forces desperately aligning against him, with Tuesday’s primary emerging as a key moment that could reshape t he Republican nominating contest both mathematically and psychologically.
Ted Cruz — who has tried to unite conservative activists, talk- radio personalities and the party establishment — stands poised to take some air out of the Trump balloon. But the New York billionaire predicted he would surprise critics. He drew a parallel to his New Hampshire victory in February following a dis- appointing defeat the week before in the Iowa caucuses — although he was never behind in New Hampshire as he is here.
“We’re having unbelievable response in Wisconsin,” Trump said during a visit to a Milwaukee diner. “And it feels very much like New Hampshire to me, where we started off where, you know, Trump wasn’t going to win New Hampshire, and then all of a sudden, we win in a landslide.” A defeat for Trump would be an embarrassing setback for the frontrunner — not just because of the 42 delegates at stake, but because it would demonstrate weakness in a place where he should be strong.
A decisive loss also would lessen his chance of amassing the 1,237 delegates needed to secure the nomination outright. Failure to do so would force an open convention in Cleveland in July.
“Wisconsin has always been a barometer state,” said fo r mer governor Tommy Thompson, a supporter of Ohio Gov. John Kasich. “What you’re seeing is that The Donald, who has been moving ahead all across the country, has hit a logjam or a brick wall in Wisconsin.”
Recent polls in Wisconsin show Trump trailing Cruz — in two polls by 10 points, others by single digits — with Kasich running third. The s enator has drawn energy, and crucial grassroots support, after winning the endorsement of Gov. Scott Walker, who is deeply popular among Wisconsin Republicans.
What makes Tuesday’s balloting important is that Wisconsin’s electorate plays more to Trump’s strength than to Cruz’s.
The percentages of evangelical Christians or Republicans who call themselves “ver y conservative” are smaller here than in states where Cruz has done best.
Beyond that, Wisconsin’s economy l ong has had a strong manufacturing base, and Trump has drawn significant support from white, working- class voters with forceful denunciations of free- trade deals that have led corporations to shift jobs overseas.
Cruz’s allies hope a win in Wisconsin could transform the way the Texan’s candidacy is viewed nationally.
What also makes Wisconsin important is that it is the only contest on Tuesday. That guarantees outsized attention.
Should he lose, Trump will have to live with the loss with no opportunity to recoup until the New York primary April 19.