BIG PICTURE
Why the UFOs attracting buzz today are drones.
According to the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration, more than 325,000 drones — or what the boring FAA calls unmanned aircraft systems (UASs) — have been registered with U.S. air transportation authorities since the introduction of a tracking program late last year. That means there are now at least 5,000 more civilian drones than there are piloted aircraft licensed to fly in the world’s largest economy. And we are not just talking hobby time. Indeed, many of these small unmanned aircraft are being registered to play in the so-called commercial Game of Drones, which is attracting venture capitalists like never before.
According to CB Insights, the global UAS sector raised more than US$ 170 million in venture development funds during the first half of 2015, compared to US$105 million and US$56 million in all of 2014 and 2013, respectively. Most investment dollars last year went into fueling the international drone war being fought by Shenzhen-based DJI Innovations, the world’s largest consumer UAS manufacturer, and 3D Robotics, a Berkeley, Calif.-based drone manufacturer and developer. But the number of major players is on the rise.
Where will the small UAS market be in five years? Forecasts are all over the map, with most currently well under US$ 10 billion. After regulatory issues are settled, however, the Association of Unmanned Vehicle Systems International believes the sector’s economic impact in the U.S. alone will top US$80 billion in a decade. That conclusion is probably as questionable as U.S. military announcements about crashed UFOs. Nevertheless, regulatory change is happening down south.
As things stand, commercial applications range from aerial photography and mapping to power-line inspection and agricultural surveillance. But growth has been slow to take off because the U. S. market currently requires commercial drone operators to have a pilot licence to fly manned aircraft. Along with other barriers to entry, the traditional pilot licence requirement is expected to disappear when new FAA rules are eventually put in place to set height restrictions, operator certification requirements and operational limits. However, commercial use of small drones is still expected to be limited to daylight hours, not to mention visual-line-of-sight operations, at least in the near term.
If companies such as Amazon. com Inc. get their way, line-ofsight restrictions will also eventually be eliminated, opening the door to home delivery services. That may not happen any time soon, but the next time something crashes in Roswell, there is still a better chance that it will be operated by someone working for Amazon Prime than Optimus Prime.