Alberta wildfires singe economy

ECONOMY

The Alberta wildfires torched the Canadian economy in May, driving the country into its worst onemonth performance since the darkest days of the Great Recession seven years ago.

On Friday, Statistics Canada’s latest reading for real gross domestic product showed a contraction for the month of 0.6 per cent, a number that revealed the extent of the economic fallout caused by the blazes that roared through the heart of oilsands country.

The dip in the economy was a little deeper than expected. Economists had predicted real GDP to recoil 0.4 per cent, according to Thomson Reuters.

The number, Canada’s worst monthly figure since real GDP fell 0.8 per cent in March, 2009, supported the already-dismal growth prospects for the second quarter.

The wildfires led to the evacuation of Fort McMurray, Alta., destroyed more than 2,000 structures and shut down key crude operations.

The decline in real GDP for May was largely due to a 22- per- cent drop in nonconventional oil extraction, which Statistics Canada said was the sector’s lowest level of output since May 2011.

The agency said the disaster was the main contributor to the 6.4- per- cent drop in the overall natural resources sector and the 2.8- per- cent decline in the output of all goods- producing industries.

Manufacturing was also hurt, knocked back 2.4 per cent in May in large part due to a 15- per- cent drop in output at petroleum refineries, which was created by a shortage of crude oil.

Even without the fires, the economy had disappointing results in other sectors. Excluding non-conventional oil extraction, real GDP moved backward in May by 0.1 per cent, Statistics Canada said.

CIBC chief economist Avery Shenfeld pointed to a weakness in capital spending by businesses, a letdown in exports and a decline in construction.

“There were fires raging in Alberta, but the rest of the economy wasn’t so hot,” said Shenfeld. But he suggested the feeble number for May should be put into perspective.

“Excluding that one (nonconventional oil) sector, GDP was down 0.1 — that is not the worst month we’ve seen,” he said. “You have to, when there’s a single event like that, strip it out because we know that ( oil) production will partly rebound in June and then be back more materially in July. So, a one- or twomonth disruption isn’t really indicative of the trend.”