BRITAIN EATS ITS CAKE ( BUT WANTS IT, TOO)
In June, when more than half of British voters declared themselves in favour of leaving the European Union, did they know what they were doing? They may have imagined it was like leaving a club, but getting out of the EU is more like a divorce, with the usual recriminations, misgivings and lawyers. And, as in many divorces, the pain has spread to relatives and friends, causing chaos in the ranks of national institutions.
The Labour Party, for instance, has been severely wounded. Jeremy Corbyn, the leader, gave such a faint-hearted performance in the campaign about the EU that threequarters of Labour MPs suggested he resign. ( The party was in favour of staying in the EU.) He refused, but if the MPs get their way, Labour could divide into two parties: pro-Corbyn (very left) and anti- Corbyn (somewhat left).
Then there are the Scots. When they voted to remain within Britain in the referendum of 2014, many argued that leaving the U.K. would lose them the benefit of the EU. Now they’re talking again about separating with England and joining the EU on their own.
The EU divorce sounds like one of those hideous cases where two rich people break up and the negotiations go on forever, both sides afraid of losing their riches. There will be at least two years of EUU.K. bargaining — and that hasn’t started yet — to divide institutions, pension rights and other joint responsibilities. Prime Minister Theresa May (who favoured Remain in the referendum) now has to take Britain through the long process of withdrawing, with her foreign secretary, Boris Johnson (a Leaver), at her side. Once that’s settled, a regiment of lawyers will pick through the U. K. lawbooks to expel or redraft laws connected to the EU.
This summer, Timothy Garton Ash, the Oxford historian and journalist, wrote some of the most passionate words of mourning for the EU connection: “For me, as a lifelong English European, this is the biggest defeat of my political life. It feels almost as bad as the fall of the Berlin Wall was good. I believe it will spell the end of the United Kingdom.”
But that’s if Britain leaves the EU, as much of the public debate now assumes will happen. Looked at another way, the EU and British public opinion have both been known to change. Why not this time?
Certainly the EU has been shaken by the referendum’s results and will soon be in the mood for compromise. British industry, anxious to keep selling its products across the EU, will be ready to lobby for a new (and perhaps improved) form of membership. Pro-EU politicians may find ways to praise it without lapsing into the jargon of economists. Voters who have experienced buyer’s remorse since the vote was tallied may now realize that the Leave campaigners sold them a crock. No, funds saved from leaving will not be applied to the national health service. No, fishermen will not have new markets at new prices. They will still sell their fish under EU rules.
The journalist Noel Ascherson has chanced a prophecy: “Britain will spend three years trying to get out and the next three years trying to get back in.” Perhaps Boris Johnson, he of the golden tresses, will be a key figure in that process, particularly in convincing Leave voters that the government has listened to their opinions. If anyone can, he can.
Polls have found him the most popular politician in the U.K. Voters love his insouciant thatch of blond hair. On Donald Trump the same sort of thing resembles a dead animal, but on Boris it looks sweet and carefree. People also warm to his unsolemn tone, his easygoing wordplay. They sense he’s intelligent but know he’ll never admit it. He has an elite education but claims he opposes the elites. A journalist called him “the Etonian man of the people.”
Most of all, voters like his charmingly dated, century- before- last manner. He’s a character few have met but many have heard about, probably in books or films. In public life today Boris is the only Dickensian character at large. He seems to have wandered out of a copy of Pickwick Papers.
Many believe that the U.K. must now choose what it wants. Does it want more control over immigration or continued open markets for its products? Boris doesn’t see it that way. As he said, “My policy on cake is pro- having it and pro-eating it,” which sounded a little nutty but on reflection turned out to define what everyone wants: a Britain that retains all the enriching benefits of the EU while maintaining, forever, a proud sovereignty. Negotiating the way to that end will require extraordinary powers of persuasion.
BREXIT IS SOUNDING LIKE A HIDEOUS DIVORCE BETWEEN TWO RICH PEOPLE FEARFUL OF LOSING EVERYTHING.