Mulcair may see push for early departure
A year ago, polls predicted Tom Mulcair would be Canada’s next prime minister. But with the New Democrats dredging new lows in recent public surveys, party sources now suggest it is highly unlikely he will return to the House of Commons later this month as leader.
Mulcair announced at t he NDP’s national convention i n Edmonton in April that he would resign, after 52 per cent of delegates voted for a change in leadership. But he said he would remain in the top job on an interim basis until a replacement was chosen in October 2017.
However, multiple party sources have expressed disquiet at the low profile Mulcair kept over the summer, avoiding public appearances on Canada Day, Saint Jean-Baptiste Day and at Pride Toronto.
A number of current and former NDP MPs confirmed discussion about giving Mulcair “an ultimatum” has carried on throughout the summer at senior party levels, and laid out a scenario that would see an attempt to force a resolution when the NDP caucus convenes next week in Montreal. ( None were willing to speak on the record because of the sensitivity of the matter.)
“This thing is coming to a head,” one MP said. “We will give the guy the honourable way out, if he wants to stay on in the House as a senior statesman. But the captain has to show up, especially when the ship is taking on water.”
One former MP, who lost his seat in the 2015 election, said he had hoped Mulcair would leave over the summer, having somewhat redeemed himself with his performance in the House after his defeat in Edmonton.
“I knew he wouldn’t have the fortitude or disposition to do what l eaders need to do during the summer when they are angling to be the next prime minister,” he said.
One senior caucus mem- ber, New Westminster- Burnaby MP Peter Julian, said he had not heard about any concerted efforts to remove Mulcair. “Our focus at the caucus retreat is going to be on the fall session. I’m hearing more and more people raising concerns about the rhetoric from the Trudeau government and what they are delivering,” he said.
Mulcair did not respond by press time to a request f or comment on any attempt to force him to resign the leadership ahead of schedule, but in an interview with t he National Post late last month he addressed questions about his recent low profile. “I’ve been taking a bit of time off this summer with my family. That’s something I haven’t had the chance to do over the last nine years,” he said.
Mulcair disputed the notion that he had been an absentee leader — he’d been in Ottawa every week over the summer, he said, working on files including the Liberals’ Latvian deployment, changes to the Supreme Court appointment process and the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission’s plan to investigate itself over concerns about Ontario nuclear plants.
“I ’ ve spent f i ve years missing family weddings” because of party commit- ments, Mulcair said. He and his wife had attended one this summer on a rare vacation together in France, he said. And at the cottage, Mulcair helped his grandchildren build a tree fort, complete with a pulley- and-basket system for bringing up snacks.
“There is no question that there are issues out there crying out for substantive analysis. But the dog days of summer has not been the best time,” Mulcair said. “I think we’ve done a decent job defining issues.”
Others are unconvinced. “The reality is that Tom Mulcair should have resigned after the convention,” Unifor president Jerry Dias told the Post. “The NDP right now, federally, until he steps aside, is stuck in the mud. They have no leader and the leader they have is MIA.”
Recent polls show the NDP as the choice of about 13 per cent of voters, compared with the Conservatives’ 29.5 per cent and the Liberals’ stratospheric 48 per cent.
Although polls mean only so much several years removed from an election, the NDP’s lacklustre showing there is reflected more meaningfully in its fundraising numbers. Between January and July, the party reported a comparatively sparse haul of just over $ 2.4 million, compared with more than $ 6 million during the first two quarters of 2015.
While the 2015 figure was bolstered by it being an election year, the sense among a number of NDP supporters is that being “off the radar all summer” has hurt them badly. By comparison, the Conservatives and Liberals reported contributions totalling $ 10.5 million and $ 8.9 million, respectively, over the same period.
The decision on who might succeed Mulcair in the interim rests with the NDP’s federal council, but the sense among MPs is that the choice ultimately will be left to caucus, with Nathan Cullen, Julian and Murray Rankin considered frontrunners, provided they do not run for the leadership in October, 2017.