The disappearance of Tom Mulcair
THE WORLD WON’T SIT AROUND AND WAIT FOR THE NDP TO GET ENERGIZED. LAST YEAR’S ELECTION PUT A SERIOUS DENT IN ITS FINANCES. — KELLY McPARLAND
Anyone out there seen Thomas Mulcair? Yo u know the guy. Male, age 61, prefers a beard. Once viewed as a serious contender to become prime minister. Last seen … well, it was quite a while ago.
The New Democratic Party leader — yes, he is still the leader, though reports suggest there is grumbling in the ranks — has managed to evade the public spotlight for months. Google “Thomas Mulcair” and most of the news stories date from April, when he lost his bid to hold onto his job. A recent poll suggested just one voter in 15 still thinks he’d make a good prime minister, though why you would expect a defeated, retiring politician to be popular is a mystery only a pollster could answer.
Mulcair got a standing ovation from all parties in the House of Commons after losing his leadership review, and responded with a typically biting response. “The Liberals swore they would be different,” he said of the new Trudeau government, “but they keep finding novel ways of being the Liberals.”
Since then, he seems to have disappeared. Much was made of Stephen Harper’s deliberately low profile after the Liberal victory — as if a defeated prime minister should keep popping up to demand a recount — until he announced, by video, that he was quitting politics. Less attention has been paid to Mulcair’s departure, perhaps because the NDP doesn’t plan to get around to replacing him until sometime late next year.
In May, he told Quebec’s La Presse that it was “very unlikely” he would run for re- election in 2019 and that he had been busy building a tree house with his grandchildren, with whom he looked forward to spending more time. Pleasant as that sounds, Mulcair still appears healthy and vigorous at 61; it’s hard to imagine him easing into life in the rocking chair just yet.
While he contemplates the future, the party risks getting stuck in neutral. The Conservatives will also pick a new leader next year, and have so many candidates and potential candidates, it ’s hard to turn around without bumping into one of them. Already there is a spirited debate going on over which post- Harper path to take, which is variously seen as a healthy airing of diverse viewpoints or a re- opening of old fault lines, depending on your point of view. One way or another, though, the Tories are taking a keen interest in what comes next, while the NDP … meh.
There are no declared candidates for the leadership. Cheri DiNovo, an Ontario provincial politician, announced a long- shot bid in June, but pulled out for health reasons in August. Most of the names being floated as potential contestants represent the usual crowd: Niki Ashton, Paul Dewar and Peggy Nash, all of whom made bids against Mulcair in 2012; long- time MP Charlie Angus; sentimental candidates Mike Layton and Olivia Chow; even former Manitoba premier Gary Doer. Perhaps most diverting would be a bid by 2011 “Vegas Girl” Ruth Ellen Brosseau, who grew into a popular and capable MP from her unlikely beginnings. Brian Topp and Nathan Cullen, who placed second and third in 2012, have ruled out bids.
The party won’t pick a successor until October 2017, five months after the Conservatives choose theirs. It has been suggested that the party wants the Tories to go first so NDP candidates know what they’re up against, but it would seem more pertinent to be focusing on the Liberals, who are their main rivals for leftwing and centre- left votes. It was the Liberals, not the Conservatives, who outmanoeuvred Mulcair and moved from third place to first. If the next NDP leader hopes to regain lost ground, he or she will have to win back some of the voters who fell in love with Justin Trudeau.
The world won’ t sit around and wait for the NDP to get energized. Last year’s election put a serious dent in its finances, and potential supporters might not be as generous now that the party is back in third place. Its public support remains tepid, and there’s the matter of $ 2.75 million it’s been told to repay in a dispute over satellite offices.
While the party twiddles its thumbs, other voices are making themselves heard, arguing that New Democrats should return to being an offshoot of Big Labour, a prophet of true socialism or a conduit for the Leap Manifesto with its vision of a Utopian future where the demise of oil somehow leads to the end of poverty and inequality.
Those options may be all that NDP faithful have to chew on until someone emerges to l ead a more practical debate. And even that assumes supporters do want to map out a practical future for themselves, rather than settling cozily into their traditional role as the well- meaning afterthought of Canadian politics. Falling from its status of official Opposition hurt, after all. It could be many NDPers prefer to avoid repeating the pain. After all, you can’t lose if you don’t try.
THE NDP LEADER HAS MANAGED TO EVADE THE PUBLIC SPOTLIGHT FOR MONTHS.