A LOOK AT THE HISTORY OF THE OCTOBER SURPRISE

1 THIS YEAR IS BIG

An unpredictable development that roils the White House race days or weeks before people vote is known as an October Surprise. U.S. presidential campaigns are often unpredictable, although the number of late- breaking developments this year may set the mark.

2 2012 WAS TAXING FOR ROMNEY

In September, as the race between Republican Mitt Romney and Democratic incumbent Barack Obama was drawing to a close, a secretly recorded video emerged that caught Romney saying 47 per cent of Americans pay no taxes and consider themselves as victims.

3 KERRY WAS FROZEN BY 2004

Democrat John Kerry headed into the final weekend feeling good about his chances of beating President George W. Bush. Then Osama bin Laden released a video lauding the 9/11 attacks and criticizing Bush. Kerry said he watched the polls freeze and then drop.

4 ’ 80 WAS ABOUT THE 52

This was the case of the October Surprise that may have been suppressed. For a year leading up to the election, Democratic President Jimmy Carter had tried to secure the release of American hostages in Iran. Critics of Ronald Reagan, the Republican challenger, claim Reagan’s campaign manager and others negotiated privately with the Iranians to ensure that the hostages wouldn’t be released before the election. Reagan beat Carter and the 52 hostages were released the day Reagan was inaugurated as president.

5 THE KISSINGER OF DEATH IN ’ 72

As President Richard Nixon was fending off a challenge from Democratic Sen. George McGovern, Nixon authorized national security adviser Henry Kissinger to say “peace is at hand” in Vietnam. The late October pronouncement bolstered Nixon’s re- election mandate but it turned out Kissinger’s prediction was way off the mark: The heaviest bombing of the war started just before Christmas 1972.