U.S. vote casts pall over PM’s Cuba trip
• The chill of the Cold War will run through Cuba when Prime Minister Justin Trudeau arrives in the country this week.
The warming of relations between Cuba and the United States could end next year when Donald Trump takes over as president, backed by a Republican-controlled Congress that has vowed to renew sanctions and roll back the reopening of relations.
Rather t han having a chance to stake out more space for Canadian businesses being muscled out by American companies coming into Cuba, experts say Trudeau is now walking into a Cuba that’s newly hesitant about further thaws in the American relationship.
Cuba’s military starts five days of exercises hours after Trudeau’s arrival in Havana, with the army warning locals they are likely to see the movement of troops, planes and explosions “where this may be required.” It’s the first time in three years that the exercises, started during Ronald Reagan’s presidency in the 1980s, will take place.
“Trump’s election could potentially strengthen the hand of those forces within the Cuban government who weren’t that keen on this rapprochement,” said Karen Dubinsky, an expert on Canadian- Cuban relations at Queen’s University.
“Everybody is slipping back into the Cold War ruts that have existed there for 50 years. That’s really a possibility on both sides.”
Canada and Mexico were the only two Western countries to maintain diplomatic ties with Cuba when the United States severed connections to the island nation in 1961. John Diefenbaker’s subsequent decision to stay out of the Cuban missile crisis in 1962, and Pierre Trudeau’s visit to Cuba in 1976 — the first NATO leader to visit the country — cemented Canada’s political independence from Washington.
Things changed in December 2014 when Obama announced a thawing in the relationship after months of secret meetings with Cuban officials — meetings that were quietly hosted in Canada.
Carlo Dade, an expert on Latin America with the Canada West Foundation, said Obama’s decision to normalize relations with Cuba was a vindication of Canada’s foreign policy.
Trump broke with many Republicans last year when he spoke in favour of renewed relations with Cuba, but that he would have negotiated a better deal. As election day neared, however, his position hardened.
Days before the election, he told a Republican rally in the key state of Florida that he would tear up Obama’s agreement with Cuba unless he got a better deal out of Havana. Republicans who backed Trump’s position expect him to roll back Obama’s rapprochement with Cuba, but it’s unclear how high it will be on his agenda. Cuba wasn’t mentioned in the plan Trump laid out for his first 100 days in office.