ISIL seen encouraging attacks in home nations

TORONTO• The declining number of foreign fighters travelling to Syria and Iraq has prompted ISIL to shift its strategy toward “coaching” extremists already in the West to conduct attacks, a report released Friday said.

The European Police Office report on the evolving Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant threat said the flow of foreigners to the conflict zones had “diminished significantly” over the past year due to the coalition military campaign and arrests of would-be terrorist travellers.

But as “training possibilities” for extremists have decreased, ISIL’s “involvement with potential violent jihadists in the West seems to be shifting from traini ng to coaching primarily self- taught operatives,” said Europol, the European Union’s police agency.

The Canadian Security Intelligence Service said in testimony to the Senate national security committee this week that the numbers of Canadians heading overseas to join terrorist groups had similarly “settled down.”

But the Europol report said ISIL was adjusting accordingly: i nstead of recruiting extremists to come for training, it was moving toward helping those with little or no training carry out attacks in their home countries.

The scenario is akin to what happened when Aaron Driver attempted a suicide bombing four months ago. Driver said in a video his attack was a response to ISIL’s call for “jihad in the lands of the crusaders.” Police confronted the 24-year-old in his driveway in Strathroy, Ont., on Aug. 10. He then detonated a bomb and was killed by police. This week an internal investigation found the police shooting was justified.

However, Europol said that automatic firearms remained the “weapons of choice” for terrorist cells intent on committing largescale attacks. Police also expect that terrorists may begin using car bombs in Europe.

In another anticipated shift stemming from the weakening of ISIL in Syria and Iraq, the terror group may start “planning and dispatching” attacks from Libya, turning the country into a “second springboard.”

While most attacks carried out under the ISIL banner were conducted by terrorists “inspired” by the group, the report said “directed” attacks would remain a problem. An “external terrorism” branch of ISIL has been sending fighters to Europe and “several dozen” are already present.

Europe is concerned that as ISIL continues to suffer battlefield losses, foreign fighters will return to their home countries, bringing wives and children who have also been radicalized. Those who return “pose a threat in that they may want to continue their attempts to destabilize the West by committing terrorist attacks,” said the report, which said more attacks were “likely to take place in the near future.”