Trudeau’s dilemma: Stickhandling Trump
What approach should our PM take?
Any day now, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s diplomatic mettle will be tested like never before when he comes face to face for the first time with t he ever- mercurial President Donald Trump.
But what approach should Trudeau take, especially in the wake of the backlash to Trump’s travel ban targeting people from seven Muslimmajority countries: pat- onthe-back conciliatory or principled and in-your-face?
If Trudeau pushes too hard, some observers say, he risks touching off Trump’s notoriously vengeful side — placing Canada on his everexpanding “hit list” — and potentially jeopardizing our precious trading relationship.
But others say Trump’s unorthodox and unpredictable nature notwithstanding, Trudeau will need to drop the niceties and don the armour of a “moral leader” and take a more aggressive stance against Trump because it’s the right thing to do.
“There’s a great line from ( John F.) Kennedy about hedging against what’s right in order to pursue power that fits,” said David Moscrop, a political scientist at UBC.
In that line, Kennedy says, “those who foolishly sought power by riding the back of the tiger ended up inside.”
“We shouldn’t ride the back of the tiger,” Moscrop said.
A spokeswoman for the Prime Minister’s Office said Tuesday a date and location had not been confirmed yet for a meeting between Trudeau and Trump, who have previously spoken by phone.
But media reports said it could happen soon, and it comes as Trudeau faces mounting pressure to condemn Trump’s executive order temporarily barring refugees and citizens from certain countries from entering the U.S.
During Question Period this week, NDP Leader Tom Mulcair repeatedly hammered Trudeau for not calling out Trump’s breach of “f undamental human rights.”
Trudeau didn’t take the bait, opting instead to say that he will always stand for “openness and diversity” and noting the importance of having a “constructive working relationship” with the U.S.
Trudeau’s British counterpart, Theresa May, has similarly been getting heat for her reluctance to explicitly denounce Trump’s travel ban. An Internet petition with more than 1.7 million signatures is now calling on her to rescind an invitation to Trump to come to Buckingham Palace.
By c ontrast, German Chancellor Angela Merkel this past weekend is said to have explained to Trump during a phone call Western nations’ obligations under the Geneva Convention to take in war refugees.
But Andrew Cooper, a political-science professor at the University of Waterloo, said Trudeau would be wise to stay the course and “keep the high road.” That means playing up the benefits of Canada’s diversity, not only culturally but economically, and not unnecessarily poking Trump.
“What you want to do is highlight the positives of Canada without being — to be blunt — on the hit list of the United States. We’ve seen other leaders of other countries who can get on that hit list,” he said. “As long as you … are not really antagonizing the Trump administration, this should work reasonably well.”
This approach has helped boost Canada’s reputation abroad, Cooper said. “I was in Denmark last week. Canada has a positive feeling among those types of European countries.”
Moscrop said he acknowl edges that Trudeau will have to tread carefully, especially when the possibility of the renegotiation of NAFTA looms. But at some point, when a moral line is crossed, the calculus has to change.
“It can’t just always be about trying to maximize the national interest,” he said. “When a serious moral wrong occurs, you expect leaders to lead. I think Trump’s (travel) ban crosses a line and so it’s reasonable that Canadians pressure the prime minister to push back on Trump.”
When it comes to Trump’s protectionist impulses, both Moscrop and Cooper agree that Trudeau will need to highlight the vital interdependence between the two countries and how so many U. S. states depend on free trade with Canada.
But Moscrop suggests Trudeau go one step further. “If I were the PM, I’d be going in ready to walk away and say, ‘ Good luck with all of that, we’ ll find someone else to work with and you can enjoy your isolationism.’”
And why stop there? Moscrop suggests Trudeau could take a page from Merkel’s handbook and “gently” explain to Trump the benefits of working within the boundaries of democratic institutions.
“Trump has this impulse to just do things — and fast. Democratic i nstitutions slow things down and require leaders to work within boundaries and with others: the law, legislative bodies, interest groups and stakeholders. In Canada, politicians do a pretty good job of respecting the institutions and working within them. And we get better policy and more representative policy for it. Trump has no idea how to navigate institutions.”