MORE THAN A HANGOVER FOR WORLD SERIES CHAMPION CUBS.
Starting pitching, defence regresses for sub-.500 team
The Chicago Cubs woke up Monday morning in fourth place in the National League Central and a game under .500, at 18-19. They are 3 ½ games behind firstplace St. Louis and nine games behind their pace of a year ago, when they were 27-10 through 37 games.
For a long time, the Cubs have wondered whether there would be a hangover from l ast fall’s cathartic World Series title, but hangovers don’t generally last for six weeks.
It isn’t just one thing ailing the Cubs. They recently endured a streak of seven straight games i n which they committed at least one error. Their defensive efficiency — the rate at which they turn batted balls into outs — has gone from first in the majors in 2016 to 21st this year. They are hitting an NL-low .214 with runners in scoring position. Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber and Addison Russell are all flirt- ing with the Mendoza Line. Of the eight members of their starting lineup, only Kris Bryant has an OPS above .750, and he missed the past three games with i njury. They have scored just six runs in their past four games, three of them losses.
The Cubs might feel lucky to be starting a 10- game homestand Tuesday night, but they are just 7-9 at home this year.
Still, the biggest culprit in the Cubs’ season- l ong slog through mediocrity, perhaps not surprisingly, has been starting pitching. The top four members of their vaunted 2016 rotation — Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, John Lackey and Kyle Hendricks — have all regressed, with gains in ERA ranging from around one run, in the case of Lester, to around 2 ½ runs, in the case of Arrieta. All have seen their WHIPs rise accordingly, as well.
“Starting pitching drives the engine,” Cubs manager Joe Maddon told reporters over the weekend. “When you’re doing t hat right, everything else has a better opportunity or chance. Your defence gets better. Contact is not as hard. Hitters don’t have to battle from behind all the time. There’s more pressure on the other side. All those things are interconnected. So as we pitch better, we’ll play better.”
Starting rotations often experience a decline in the year following a World Seri es run, with t he added workloads and r educed recovery time exacting a toll. Perhaps the greatest example was the 2005- 06 Chicago White Sox, whose rotation ERA went from 3.75 during their 2005 title run to 4.65 the next season, with more or less the same group.
For the Cubs, Arrieta is by far the most worrisome of their wayward starters. His ERA has gone from 1.77 in 2015, when he won the NL Cy Young Award, to 3.10 in 2016, to 5.44 this year. It’s probably not coincidental t hat his odometer readings from 2015 and 2016 — 248 2/ 3 and 219 2/ 3 innings pitched, respectively, regular and post- season combined — were by far the highest of his career.
And Arrieta’s slide comes at an inopportune time for him, with free agency awaiting at the end of the season.
“I don’t think there’s any reason to panic,” Arrieta said after a loss Sunday in St. Louis.
“The talent we have here will correct itself and start to t urn i t self around … We’d like to win a few more games than we ( have) and tighten things up, but guys are showing up ready to play and going about themselves the right way. We’re just not getting the results we’d like.”
Over the off- season and into the spring, it was fashionable to ponder whether t he Cubs might have the makings of a dynasty, given the youthfulness of their everyday lineup, the strength of their farm system and the mighty revenues driving their engine.
The organization’s strategy of growing its bats — with the bulk of the Cubs’ e ver yday players being products of their farm system — and importing its arms seemed like a sound one when the team was winning 103 games on its way to a championship a year ago.
But now, with t hose same pitchers suddenly appearing worn out and in need of a c ol l ective breather, it is fair to wonder whether this group can turn it around in 2017, or if the Cubs, now dealing with enormous expectations, need to make some changes.
STARTING PITCHING DRIVES THE ENGINE.