Bungling May faces a quagmire
One variation on Murphy’s Law goes like this: if a politician can make a hash of something, they will make a hash of it. Theresa May, Britain’s suddenly shaky prime minister, proved the truth of this Thursday when she took what looked like certain triumph in a snap election — called at short notice against the weakest Labour leader in a generation — and all but fumbled it away.
Rather than the smashing victory widely predicted a month ago, when she was expected to pick up as many as 100 extra seats, May’s Conservatives managed to lose 12 seats from the majority they previously held, while Labour gained 31 seats. The result, a “hung Parliament,” means May needs to craft a deal with another party to remain in power. Talks were quickly undertaken with Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party, which won 10 seats, enabling May to announce this morning she would lead a new government “that can provide certainty and lead Britain forward at this critical time for our country.”
Brave talk from a wounded leader, but May emerged from the election humiliated and badly — perhaps fatally — weakened. Members of her own party denounced the campaign she ran as “dreadful.” Talk has already started as to whether she can survive as Tory leader. One of those suggesting her future is doubtful was Arlene Foster, leader of the Irish DUP that had just agreed to prop up her government.
There can be little question May bungled the election. Although she had pledged to finish out the full term of her predecessor, David Cameron, May changed her mind and sent the country into an unexpected contest, lured by the opportunity to comprehensively defeat a Labour opposition led by Jeremy Corbyn, a left- wing extremist disliked within his own caucus, who had appointed a life- long communist to act as his communications boss and proposed renationalizing a host of industries.
May maintained she needed the renewed mandate to negotiate the best deal for Britain in the Brexit talks. It was a reasonable enough claim, but the party quickly got sidetracked when its election platform was released to widespread disdain. May also failed to gain ground after two terrorist attacks — which forced the suspension of campaigning — when it was noted she had overseen a sharp reduction in police budgets.
Belatedly, the Tories tried to shift the agenda back to Brexit, but May’s wobbly performance continued. Responding to the furor over the dementia tax, she insisted nothing had changed, prompting accusations of a mid- campaign U- turn. Corbyn, meanwhile, succeeded in projecting himself as a harm- less old duffer who only wanted to help those who needed it most, drawing enormous support from young voters.
The result is a quagmire. Corbyn says he won’t join forces with other parties to topple May, but has also suggested she should resign, sending the government into a leadership vacuum at a time it should be negotiating its departure from the EU. To hang onto her job, May will be dependent on the DUP, which faces its own uncertainties after recently losing its majority in the Northern Irish assembly for the first time. If anyone’s leadership is less certain than May’s, it may be Foster’s.
If there’s a silver lining for the Conservatives it can be found in Scotland, where the Scottish National Party suffered a humiliation equal to May’s. Viewed as a kingmaker in Parliament as recently as 2015 when it won 56 of 59 Scottish constituencies, the separatist SNP dropped 21 seats — 13 to the Conservatives — to see its dream of a second referendum disappear into the Highlands mist. Former first minister Alex Salmon lost his seat, while his successor, Nicola Sturgeon, quickly made known she’d be pleased to work closely with Corbyn if he changed his mind and decided to form a government.
The election disaster puts Britain in a deeply troubled position. EU negotiators now know they face a depleted and unsteady government as the two sides press for advantage in the Brexit talks. May’s leverage — that she’d been chosen to replace Cameron precisely to strike a deal on Brexit — has been lost. Northern Ireland voted against leaving Europe, and May’s Irish partners will almost certainly demand concessions in return for their support. They will also likely seek a “soft” Brexit rather than a clean break, as they face pressure from constituents fearful of losing the economic advantages membership in the EU has provided. May will have to negotiate while knowing that a host of would-be successors are watching her every move and calculating whether to strike.
It is also the latest in a series of startling election results, from Donald Trump’s victory in the U. S. to Emmanuel Macron’s in France. The U.S. is led by a president at odds with many in his own party, facing investigations in Congress and widespread speculation over his ability to serve out his term. France has a leader who comes from neither of the main parties and has never held office before. And Britain has a weak government with damaged leadership while negotiating a crucial pact with Europe and struggling to deal with terrorist attacks.
If Murphy’s Law was ever in doubt, it can’t be any longer. Theresa May has taught the world, once again, about the supreme ability of governments to make a mess of things.