Is Westeros in a housing bubble?
Experts warn that wildfire-like market risks a steep correction
KING’ S LANDING• The Master of Coin expressed concern this week that the housing market in Westeros may be dangerously overheated, with several of its largest markets recording double-digit year-over-year increases.
The Small Council is said to be mulling a foreign buyer’s tax, given the significant population growth expected in the coming 20 years, led by Dothraki hordes and legions of the Unsullied.
The average selling price of a single-family home in the capital passed 100,000 gold dragons for the first time last month, while prices in Highgarden and Riverrun have also reached record highs. Secondary markets within commuting distance are receiving the overflow, with bidding wars erupting and local buyers caught in the middle.
“We’ve never seen this before,” says Maidenpool realtor Ellia Friar- Mooton. “Buyers from King’s Landing are bidding against other buyers from King’s Landing. All gold, no conditions. It’s insane.”
Westeros, which famously weathered the known world’s economic crash following the Valyrian Doom, has long been known as a stable market for investment, but even those who have most benefitted from the recent wild ride are now expressing concern.
“For a while, speculators have assumed that prices would just go up forever,” said Petyr Baelish, Ward of the Vale. “I started out with real estate in The Fingers, then leveraged that into a large property at Harrenhal – though it did need some work – and now I’ve added a penthouse in The Eyrie. For a while getting a foothold in the market seemed worth killing for, but now I wonder what happens when the music stops.”
Desperate to buy in before prices are completely out of reach, many Westerosi have taken on troubling amounts of personal debt, including private mortgages from the Iron Bank of Braavos. Not everyone agrees that high prices are the result of speculation, however.
“Increasing selling prices are simply the result of supply-and-demand,” says Edmure Snow of White Harbor Realty. “The Wall continues to limit development and reduce inventory for the kind of detached dwellings sought by families.”
With listings of three- chamber homes at an all-time low – especially ones with a small backyard or more than one privy – some homebuyers are commuting from as far as Dorne.
“The weather’s nice,” said one clerical worker in Oldtown. “But when do you see your kids?”
It’s not only homebuyers who are feeling the pinch. Renters in dwellings constructed after King Aerys II Targaryen ended rent control have faced monthly increases that are tantamount to eviction. But even those fortunate enough to lease in buildings that predate The Mad King are increasingly finding themselves forced out by landlords intending to move in relatives (“renoviction,” as it’s become known). Sometimes the landlords hire sellswords to intimidate renters into leaving, and in extreme cases simply burn them out.
With a lean-to in Fleabottom going for an astounding 200 silver stags a month, would-be renters are increasingly unable to find suitable lodgings.
“I was priced out of King’s Landing, so I kept expanding my search,” said Jeryme Calledon. “I never thought I’d move back to Dragonstone – and I haven’t. I just bribed a landlord for a chamber in a neighbourhood the realtor called ‘Dragonstone-adjacent.’”
During the current frenzy, many districts have rebranded themselves in the hopes of commanding higher rents. One area of Lannisport, south of Casterly Rock, has renamed itself “The Lanny.”
Even the Iron Islands, a market whose values were long depressed due to its inaccessible location and all the reaving, have seen a boost. New transplants such as Maureyn Branly, have been quick to fall in love with their adopted home.
“You have the water, space, a local arts scene. Everything that we had back in King’s Landing, really – just at a fraction of the price!” she said, laughing, slightly hysterically, before breaking down into wracking sobs. “Gods, what did we do?”