National Post

Olympic medal prediction­s complicate­d by Russia

If it’s in, Germany tipped to win most gold medals

- STEPHEN WADE

Simon Gleave is piecing together results from his statistica­l model to predict the top medal- winning countries for next year’s PyeongChan­g Winter Olympics.

He has one large problem: will Russia be in, or out, or somewhere in between?

Gleave, the head of analysis for Gracenote Sports, has created a virtual medal table on the assumption that Russia’s full team will participat­e and not be subject to a doping ban.

“At the moment we assume with everything we’re doing that Russia is in,” Gleave said.

The Internatio­nal Olympic Committee said it hopes to decide on Russian eligibilit­y in December with the Olympics opening on Feb. 9. But it may drag right up to the eve of the games, as it did last year in Rio de Janeiro.

On Wednesday, Olympic officials in PyeongChan­g marked 100 days to go until the opening ceremony.

With Russia in, Gleave predicts that Germany will win the most gold medals, and the most overall. Germany is predicted to win 14 golds and 35 overall, followed by Norway with 12 gold and 32 overall.

The United States is next with 10 gold and 29 overall. Canada is predicted to win 31 overall, more than the Americans but with fewer gold.

The Canadian Olympic Committee has not publicly stated its goal for PyeongChan­g. The Canadian team took home 25 medals from the Sochi Olympics, including 10 gold. Gleave is projecting just five Canadian golds this time.

Gleave projects those golds to come from men’s and women’s curling, freestyle skier Mikael Kingsbury, snowboarde­r Max Parrot and the men’s hockey team. He’s predicting Canada’s championsh­ip run in women’s hockey will end with the U.S. stealing away the gold. He also has two-time gold medallist bobsledder Kaillie Humphries finishing second.

Accustomed to dealing with the unpredicta­ble, Gleave said men’s hockey will be tougher to predict, since NHL players will not participat­e. That leaves him relying on results from recent world championsh­ips.

“The strong countries in ice hockey are the strong countries in ice hockey — whether it’s their first teams playing or their second teams,” he said. But he acknowledg­ed his picks for men’s hockey will not be “as strong” as in other events.

He predicts Canada will defeat Sweden in the gold medal game while Russia will take bronze.

To get his prediction­s for all sports, Gleave weighs results in recent world championsh­ips and other world- class events, giving more weight to the most recent.

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