Jerome Powell poised to succeed Janet Yellen at Fed.
MARKETS FLATTENING YIELD CURVE CAUSE FOR CAUTION
Here are some of the big themes likely to dominate thinking of investors and traders this week:
P O WE L L T O THE PEOPLE
The U. S. Senate Banking Committee holds a hearing on Tuesday to confirm the nomination of Jerome Powell to succeed Janet Yellen at the helm of the Federal Reserve. If, as expected, Powell is confirmed, he faces tough challenges.
The world’s top economy is pretty much firing on all cylinders, enjoying record long expansion, the lowest unemployment in nearly half a century and with Wall Street at historic highs.
But wages and inflation are rising slower than the Fed would like, household debt is high and the expansion is closer to its end than the beginning. Those concerns are highlighted by the Treasury yield curve which is at the flattest in a decade.
Whatever the reasons behind the remarkable pace of curve flattening in recent weeks, the fact remains that the 2s/10s yield curve is only 58 basis points from inverting — the classic signal that recession is just around the corner.
H E R E WE G O AGAIN (IN EUROPE)
For about six weeks, European government bonds enjoyed one of their most benign periods this year. The ECB had extended its asset purchases, economic growth was improving and the axis of German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron was seen leading Europe into the next generation of reforms.
Now cracks are starting to appear.
Germany’s Merkel is struggling to form a coalition, raising the possibility of snap elections. The Irish government is on the verge of collapse, driving government bonds lower. The development could send ripples through the euro zone “periphery” and may also affect Britain’s divorce with the EU.
And Italian elections loom in the first half of 2018. All this is a reminder that political risk in Europe isn’t quite over.
REGULATOR IN THE CHINA SHOP
Chinese stocks suffered their biggest fall in 18 months on Thursday. Faced with low visibility on authorities’ deleveraging plan — considered the main reason behind the rout — investors are wondering how long and deep the reversal could be
Mainland stocks have gained 24 per cent in 2017. Since government bond yields started climbing two months ago, they are up 6.5 per cent. But they lag the 34 per cent year-to-date jump across emerging stocks.
Banking stocks have outperformed even though the first crackdown by authorities since October Party Congress has been on the shadow banking sector and micro-lenders, removing a big source of retail funding for stock market investments.
Meanwhile, business surveys due on Wednesday will provide clues on the health of the world’s second-largest economy.
CUTS BOTH WAY S
Oil producers assembling in Vienna on Nov. 30 are expected to ex- tend supply cuts to support crude prices — but Russia may throw a spanner in the works.
Although not a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries ( OPEC), Moscow agreed with the group and nine other producers to curb output by about 1.8 million barrels per day until March 2018.
Saudi Arabia wants a ninemonth extension of this deal. But Russia has sent mixed signals about whether it will back the move.
Oil producers fighting for market share drove Brent crude futures to a trough of US$27 a barrel in January 2016. Curbing supplies since then has helped oil rise to over US$60 a barrel, but the recovery has also resuscitated U.S. shale production to a record 9.66 million barrels per day.
WI L L T H E Y SHOP UNTIL THEY DROP?
With Black Friday — the busiest day of the year for U. S. retailers — kicking off the holiday shopping season, markets are trying to gauge what’s in store for the sector.
Of the 218 retailers tracked by Thomson Reuters, the internet sector is expected to see fourth quarter earnings expand at the fastest clip — 13.8 per cent. Six of the 10 retailers in the sector are anticipated to see higher earnings than a year ago, with Netflix’s earning per share predicted to soar 176.7 per cent.
Amazon is also set to see a 19.4 per cent earnings jump.
But it doesn’t look rosy for everyone. The textiles, apparel and luxury goods sector is expected to see earnings shrink 8 per cent. Ten of the 22 retailers in this group are likely to see earnings fall year-on-year.
The Thomson Reuters Same Store Sales Index predicts 1.6 per cent growth in the fourth quarter. While that increase is twice as big as last year’s, it is below the 3- per cent healthy mark.
Consumer spending accounts for over two- thirds of U. S. economic activity and increased at a 2.4 per cent annualized rate in the third quarter.