Money deal leave two obstacles to overcome
The gross UK settlement, before deductions, is understood to be 100 billion euros.
Although it remains true t hat “nothing is agreed until everything is agreed,” sources said t he breakthrough on money effectively now leaves only two major obstacles in order to make progress when the European Council meets on Dec. 14.
These are defining the role of the European Court of Justice (ECJ) in governing the agreement on the rights of 3.2 million EU expats in the UK after Brexit, and the continued row between London and Dublin over avoiding a return of a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland.
“The deal on the money is there. It’s now the ECJ question and Northern Ireland that are the outstanding issues ahead of the council,” said a senior source involved in negotiations.
The deal on the bill throws the spotlight on to the ongoing negotiations over the Irish border question.
British and Irish negotiators are in “constant touch” in search of a compromise solution as the December deadlines approach.
In a boost for the process, the threat of a snap Irish general election, which had threatened to create a political vacuum at a crucial moment in the Brexit talks, was ended Tuesday by the resignation of Frances Fitzgerald, the Irish deputy prime minister.
The British offer on all three areas — money, citizens’ rights and Northern Ireland — is now expected to be delivered by May next week in order to enable Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, to make his recommendation on “sufficient progress.”
If Barnier gives the green light, a meeting of EU ambassadors is scheduled for next Wednesday to prepare guidelines ahead of the European Council summit a week later, with the European Parliament likely to vote on its own “sufficient progress” resolution on Dec 13.
However, t he EU has made clear that the payment is for settling past liabilities and does not guarantee a trade deal.
The precise size of the UK’s payment will not be calculated until the point of UK exit, and the Telegraph understands the EU side is discussing how to obscure the final bill in order to help May overcome political opposition from Brexiteers.
The UK had already signalled a willingness to pay 40 billion euros, but the Telegraph understands that May was forced to increase that offer during the course of the last week on the advice of all seven members in the cabinet’s Brexit sub-committee.