The crazy world of the Patrick Brown saga
PCs may even be benefiting from this soap opera
The Ontario Progressive Conservatives’ Provincial Nomination Committee faces an important decision in vetting Patrick Brown for a run in Barrie- Springwater- OroMedonte. If it decides that something in Brown’s background renders him unfit to run under the Tory banner — oh, who knows what it could be — then that would scupper Brown’s wildly improbable bid to reassume leadership of a party that forced him to resign just a few weeks ago. (He could appeal, however.) One might think it was a pretty easy decision, too: no, sorry. Or not sorry, as the case might be. The verdict will likely come down Wednesday.
Brown and his supporters seem to believe problems with CTV’s reporting of sexual assault and coercion allegations against him amount, in the public eye, to vindication. They argue (not incredibly) that dark arts practitioners are behind allegations that he had business dealings with a future Tory candidate — allegations apparently disproven by an affidavit Brown tweeted out Tuesday. Brown alleges that his personal information has been stolen, and on Tuesday tried to soften the blow for yet more allegations: “I want you to know that over the next weeks you may hear or see stories questioning my integrity, character and my leadership of our party,” he wrote on Facebook.
Some of this may be terribly unfair to Brown. But t hat does not mean t he Progressive Conservatives should offer him his j ob back. Fair or unfair, predictions of “stories questioning my integrity, character and my leadership” are not what you want in a prominent candidate for MPP or for leader. Nor is an ongoing legal battle with a major news network over exactly what happened between him and some very young and drunk women on an evening 10 years ago.
True enough, the members at large are supposed to pick the leader. But the very existence of the vetting committee shows they aren’t automatically entitled to pick who runs in each riding. A green light from that committee is a prerequisite to run for leader.
Indeed, to a sane mind this might all sound like overthinking. The party forced Brown to quit; on Friday, interim leader Vic Fedeli turfed him from caucus, and on Tuesday said he hadn’t “confidence ( in Brown) to be ( the) party candidate in Barrie.” Brown’s departure triggered mass euphoria in certain sections of the party, and a surge in donations and offers of volunteer labour. Fedeli claims the membership list was an overinflated mess ( t hough Brown claimed an innocent explanation on Tuesday: thousands of memberships had simply expired), and professes to be busy rooting out various forms of Brown- era “rot.” And the leadership race has been a reasonably civilized affair that’s generated tons of publicity for the party. True, sex- ed and carbon pricing skepticism are items the Tories probably don’t want to relitigate on the nightly news — but despite all the drama, polls suggest none of this has hurt the party’s chances on June 7. It might even have helped.
So why on Earth would they invite the impetus for the whole gong show back in for another try?
Well, to hell with everything: why not?
If you ask me, it’s completely daft to allow any huckster in a fancy hat to roll into town, sell as many memberships as he can and then take over a party regardless of whether caucus loves or loathes him ( or, indeed, has recently fired him). But that’s the system most parties have, for now, and sticking to it has been working rather well of late for the Ontario Tories.
Forum Research is perhaps not the most credible name in Canadian polling, but if numbers it released on Monday are to be even half- believed, then the postBrown process t hus f ar hasn’t just boosted Conservative voting intention; the Tories could be on their way to a majority government no matter who wins the leadership: 43 per cent of decided and “leaning” voters picked the PCs under Doug Ford; 48 per cent under Christine Elliott; 49 per cent under Caroline Mulroney; and, yes, 43 per cent under Patrick Brown.
One could wax pessimistic about this. Is Doug Ford’s proud know- nothingism really only worth that small discount? Do Ontarians expect so little dignity from politicians and political parties that the Tories look even better after their monthlong fight- club- on- a- rollercoaster? Might Brown’s entry into the race supporting the mushy- middle People’s Guarantee — carbon tax and all — end the civility and change the positive narrative? Could the Liberals and NDP make hay from an alleged abuser of women being welcomed back into the fold?
Absolutely. But Brown has his supporters. There is risk in shutting him out, too. And public opinion is unpredictable when it comes to people perceived to have been treated unfairly. There were those who didn’t even want to have a leadership race — those who predicted it would doom the party to defeat — and at this point, albeit with weeks to go, they look to have been wrong.
Some of us have had enough of this chaos, but the party might do worse than embracing it. Patrick Brown for leader is a bonkers idea. But bonkers has been normal for quite some time now at Queen’s Park.