Notley’s mistake was believing the Liberals
Poor Rachel Notley. She’s spent so much of her political career telling people about the importance of social licence only to find out, in her hour of need, that the federal government won’t get her one.
No one would ever confuse the premier of Alberta for a stalwart friend of the province’s energy sector. But since this former oilsands critic became premier she has, at least, acknowledged a more realistic view of fossil fuels and their importance to a modern economy, and the need to get her province’s oil to tidewater for export. But she also told Albertans they would need to make sacrifices to win over opponents, demonstrating the province’s environmental bona fides, never mind the fact that Alberta’s oil was already the most environmentally friendly petroleum in the world. She imposed a carbon tax. She put caps on the oilsands. Albertans paid dearly for her plan.
Alas, all those efforts have bought little support from B. C, where Notley’s fellow NDP premier, propped up by a handful of Green MLAs, isn’t about to let Alberta make any progress on the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion. The federal govern- ment, too, despite the occasional supportive grunt, certainly doesn’t seem inclined to do much more than offer repeated, vague restatements about approved projects needing to move ahead.
Notley has understandably had enough. Now she says Alberta won’t increase its carbon tax to $50 per tonne, in line with federal commitments to a national target, as originally intended, until Ottawa treats Alberta with the same respect. “Our government was very clear well over a year ago that we will sign on to the federal government’s pan- Canadian framework with the approval of the Trans Mountain pipeline,” she said in the legislature this week. “Now, obviously, approval means nothing if it’s not constructed ... we will not move forward ... until we see that construction is fully underway and that approval is given meaning.”
It’s not hard to see the play she’s making. Having given up on finding any common cause with B.C., she’s ramping up the pressure on Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, another self-styled progressive. It’s a not a bad idea: Losing Notley, who’s been an ally for the PM on the climate file so far, will be unfortunate for the federal Liberals and their dreams of a national carbon tax.
No one should hold their breath waiting for Trudeau to actually do much. The PM knows the drill: talk a lot about social licence, and then wait interminably for a licence that will never be given to never arrive. It’s the progressive way. It’s a wonder that Notley didn’t know that.
IT’S NOT HARD TO SEE THE PLAY SHE’S MAKING.