Betting against Vegas is now costly
Casinos eye big payouts once thought unlikely
LAS VEGAS• At the time, Nick Bogdanovich thought he was actually giving the Vegas Golden Knights pretty favourable odds. Bogdanovich’s William Hill sportsbook listed the city’s new hockey team as 250-to-1 long shots to win the Stanley Cup in their first year of existence. The true odds before the season, he said, should’ve been closer to 2,500 to 1.
“Every expert had them finishing dead last or maybe next to last in the Western Conference,” said Bogdanovich, William Hill’s chief oddsmaker.
With the Golden Knights holding a one-game advantage heading into Game 2 Wednesday night, William Hill could be three Vegas wins away from losing close to US$2 million (all succeeding figures US). One bettor is in for $1,000 on a 50-1 ticket. Another has $200 at 200-1. And there are many smaller bets that were placed at 250-1.
Casinos all along the Strip are facing similar circumstances, and the total liability in Las Vegas has been estimated at $5 million to $7 million, which would likely mark the city’s biggest loss on futures betting.
“We’re going to be wrong, and we’ll just have to pay,” Bogdanovich said.
These Stanley Cup finals represent a unique case study, a nexus of hometown rooting interests and legal sports wagering. As states across the country consider regulating sports wagering in light of the Supreme Court’s decision to strike down a federal law that had previously outlawed it, fans may soon have an easier pathway to laying down both a rooting and a financial interest in their favourite teams’ games. The series also underscores the risks at play for the house.
While seven-figure losses sound big on the surface, casinos are accustomed to occasionally taking their lumps. Jay Kornegay, who runs the sportsbook at the Westgate Las Vegas, likened the potential hit to a bad weekend during the football season.
The biggest Vegas ticket currently listed on PropSwap was originally purchased for $300 at 400-to-1 odds. It would pay out $120,000 if the Knights win three more games. A bettor could buy that ticket right now for the asking price of $95,000.
PropSwap co-founder Luke Pergande knows the risks and rewards. He, after all, bought a $50 ticket back in October at 500-to-1 odds. “I didn’t think they were going to win the Cup,” he said, “but I knew the number felt off.”