WHY ALBERTA SEPARATISM IS A BAD IDEA
Several weeks ago, former Conservative cabinet minister Jay Hill delivered a surprise endorsement of Alberta separatism in the Calgary Herald. “I’ve been encouraged by several to rationally consider the case for western independence,” he wrote, arguing that equalization, the carbon tax and other outrages were fuelling a belief that “Confederation is no longer working in the best interests of the West.” However, here from Tristin Hopper is a quick guide to why a sovereign Alberta is a really, really bad plan.
THERE’S NO COASTLINE
Alberta is landlocked. If Alberta became independent, it would be wholly dependent on foreign countries for exports, imports and even tourism. “But what about Switzerland and Luxembourg? They’re landlocked and they’re also two of the world’s richest countries,” you might say. Fair point, but Luxembourg and Switzerland also have economies built upon light, specialized tasks such as banking and watchmaking. Alberta, by contrast, makes most of its money from extremely heavy commodities that need to be moved to market at great expense. Both Luxembourg and Switzerland also straddle multiple nations that they can play against each other. But an independent Alberta would be an island in the middle of NAFTA-land utterly subject to their whims.
A LAYER CAKE OF BREXITS
For two years and counting, the efforts of the U.K. government have been almost completely monopolized by the diplomatic odyssey of exiting the European Union. An independent Alberta would face the challenges of Brexit and much, much more. In an instant, Alberta would instantly lose access to generations of Canadian diplomatic work: Free-trade agreements, treaties, alliances and membership in international organizations such as the World Trade Organization, NATO and the United Nations. In a nightmare scenario, Alberta would celebrate its first independence day without trade agreements of any kind. Overnight, hundreds of commodities that used to flow over Alberta’s borders absolutely free would be slapped with a web of baseline tariff rates in both Canada and the U.S. “Alberta already has a huge issue with trade costs … the idea that these costs would fall (after independence) is preposterous,” said University of Calgary economist G.K. Fellows.
ALBERTA IS DIVISIBLE
This was the chief comeback thrown at Quebec separatists in the 1980s and 1990s. If Quebec could break up Canada, went the logic, then Canada could break up Quebec and keep Gatineau, Nunavik and any other part of La Belle Province that didn’t want René Lévesque on their postage stamps. Canada has become pretty dependent on military bases like CFB Cold Lake and CFB Suffield in order to maintain its NORAD and NATO commitments. Alberta’s various national parks are all on land owned by Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada. The Government of Canada inked five treaties to acquire the land now constituting Alberta, and the provinces’ 45 First Nations may not be down with having those treaty commitments handed over to some arriviste Alberta nationalists. There’s the distinct possibility that Liberal-voting Edmonton wouldn’t want any part of a glorious new Alberta republic, and might opt to become a West Berlin-style enclave under the Maple Leaf.
LOSS OF LABOUR MOBILITY
Alberta’s economy has always been heavily dependent on workers from the rest of the country. Even after the recent downturn, Alberta still faces a niggling labour shortage, particularly in the skilled trades. That’s only going to get worse if Canada’s Cape Bretoners and Newfoundlanders suddenly have a border between them and the oil sands.
BIG DEBT PROBLEMS
Canada is not letting Alberta out the door without first paying its share of the federal debt. As of press time, that share is equal to roughly $71 billion. University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe noted that Canada pays an interest rate of 2.27 per cent on this debt, while Alberta pays a much higher rate of 3.05 per cent. Thus, the mere act of transferring the debt would result in an extra $600 million per year in debt servicing costs. And as an independent country Alberta’s interest rates would almost certainly go up. Canadian provinces currently benefit from relatively low interest rates because they’re part of a stable, wealthy G7 country with three coasts and a diversified economy. “Our debt service costs increases alone would eventually be measured in the billions,” said Tombe.
VERY PRICEY
Who would do the rural policing in the Independent Republic of Alberta? Hiring the Mounties is off the table, so does Alberta build its own federal police force from scratch or leave policing to individual municipalities? Who’s going to inspect the food? Who’s going to care for the veterans? Who’s going to collect the taxes? Who’s going to run the airport security? Canada has more than 200 federal agencies, and not all of them are as easily discarded as the National Film Board or the Bank of Canada Museum. And whatever you may think about Ottawa’s spendthrift ways, it’s a virtual guarantee that an Albertan federal government would be way more expensive than the Canadian one. Pound for pound, Alberta is already home to the country’s costliest public sector.
BYE-BYE PIPELINES
A lot of Alberta’s rage at the rest of Canada has been fuelled by the fact that it can’t get an export pipeline built. Quebec has reaped billions in federal spending funded in large part by Albertan petrodollars, but then did everything in its power to block Energy East. B.C. has no problem with expanding its own carbon-intensive coal and LNG sectors, but has decided that stonewalling the oilpatch is an environmental imperative. A particularly far-fetched belief among certain Alberta separatists is that building pipelines would actually get easier if Alberta seceded. They point to the preamble of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea which guarantees “freedom of transit “to land-locked states. These optimistic separatists might be advised to check out Canada’s own British North America Act, which carries the explicit guarantee that any and all trade goods from one province should “be admitted free into each of the other Provinces.” If Canadian provinces are willing to bend the rules with their country’s own founding document, it’s a fair bet that they won’t be quick to return the UN’s calls.