MBS isn’t going anywhere
SAUDIS NEED THE AMERICANS BUT THEY ARE NOT PUPPETS AND THEY HAVE OPTIONS
The CIA’s recent “high confidence” assessment that Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman (MBS) ordered the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi should not come as a surprise. While there is no smoking gun — and never will be — it is hard to imagine an alternative conclusion being drawn based on current Saudi realities.
Power in the Kingdom has become highly centralized over the past few years. It is well understood in Riyadh that virtually all big decisions being made in Saudi Arabia these days run through the Royal Court and that means MBS.
While the Saudis may not have considered the murder of a journalist a “big decision” — and are likely surprised by the sustained international reaction to it — the order is characteristic of the kind of impulsive moves for which MBS has become famous (or infamous).
The issue of who gave the order is only part of the problem. The bigger question is, will MBS’s apparent culpability matter? Sadly, the answer is probably no.
Despite demands from various U.S. Senators and others that MBS be removed, the reality is that he is going nowhere.
The murder of Khashoggi has been a major embarrassment for the Kingdom and it has indelibly tainted MBS. But the Saudi leadership is hyper-sensitive to international criticism (witness their over-reaction to Canada’s relatively benign tweet this summer). Criticism that targets senior royals is a red line, as Saudi Foreign Minister Adel Al Jubeir has noted.
The King and other leading Royals — no matter how upset they might be with MBS at the moment — will be very reluctant to let outsiders dictate who rules the Kingdom. For them, caving in to these demands would be a sign of weakness or subservience that they fear could threaten the Al Saud, perhaps fatally.
Saudis, despite MBS’s many missteps, are not clamouring for his removal. On the contrary, MBS remains popular. He is young, dynamic and so different from the aged leaders who have ruled the Kingdom from its beginnings. That resonates in a country where the majority of the population is under 35 and who have long hoped for the kind of social reforms MBS has instituted (even if many are also profoundly disappointed at the tightening of political space during the past 12 months or so). Many Saudis would not take his removal — especially under international pressure — lightly.
Removing MBS would require the equivalent of a palace revolt. It is true that crown princes and even a king have been removed in the past. But moving successfully against this Crown Prince — the King’s favourite son whom he installed in the post despite some internal resistance — would be very challenging.
While there are royals who oppose MBS, most are likely too intimidated to stick their necks out in opposition to a leader who, assuming he survives this, will be king for 50 years. They would have to be very confident of success before making that move. Many royals may have been marginalized under MBS, but they and their children have very comfortable lives and they are likely reluctant to put those privileges at risk to satisfy Western outrage — especially when the chances of success seem so remote.
Holding the Saudis in general and MBS in particular accountable for this affair will be difficult. The U.S. does have influence in the Kingdom but it has its limits. The Saudis need the U.S. but they are not puppets and they have options. The Russians and Chinese, for example, would welcome the opportunity to expand their ties with the Saudis and don’t care what MBS may or may not have done.
Saudi Arabia is a strategic partner for the U.S. and the West in dealing with a wide range of regional issues and Riyadh’s role in shaping the global oil market makes the Saudis too important to easily cast aside.
The Saudi brand has been badly tarnished and business as usual relationships with most Western countries will be difficult, especially in the short run. But, in the end, there are strategic interests at play that will eventually win out. MBS will be part of that equation going forward however frustrating that will be for those hoping for more.