A cadre of high-profile candidates
The Conservative party is setting a high bar for candidates to enter the race to succeed Andrew Scheer, which may leave a small pack of mostly big- name candidates vying for the job.
Conservative MPS Erin O’toole and Pierre Poilievre are expected to announce their run soon, according to Conservative organizers. Jean Charest, a former Quebec Liberal premier and federal Progressive Conservative leader, is expected to put his name forward. Former cabinet minister Peter Mackay is getting closer to deciding and there is a growing sense he’ll also get in the race.
However, businessman Bryan Brulotte is the only candidate who’s publicly announced his candidacy so far.
The biggest question revolves around Rona Ambrose, the party’s former interim leader, who has not ruled out a run but also does not appear to be preparing for one.
Conservative sources — some of whom are still hoping Ambrose will get in the race — told National Post that other possible candidates are in “Rona Watch” mode, waiting for her to decide before making a decision. The same goes for Conservative MPS deciding which candidacy to get behind.
“Caucus is largely still waiting for Rona,” said one person working on a rival leadership bid. One Conservative MP said there is a “generalized yearning” for Ambrose’s time in charge due to her skilful caucus management and almost conflict-free tenure of a year and a half.
Although the rules haven’t been officially finalized, candidates have been told to expect that entering the race will require a $ 300,000 deposit and 3,000 signatures from at least 30 ridings in seven different provinces. The deposit is much higher than the $100,000 deposit for the 2017 leadership race that elected Scheer, but it’s the collection of 3,000 Canada-wide signatures that could be a bigger barrier because it requires national organization.
The signatures will have to come from members of the party in good standing, so candidates will have to err on the side of caution and collect more than the minimum numbers in the event that some people have allowed their membership to lapse.
O’toole, who came third in the leadership race in 2017, has committed to running and has his entire team from the previous bid intact, plus a much larger, “much more diverse” group on top of that, a source close to the campaign said.
Over the holidays, some members of O’toole’s team got together to chart a path to victory for the MP from Whitby, Ont., and help him make the decision to join the race. His supporters believe he can be the solution to a major problem facing the Conservative Party electorally: he can win in the suburbs and, notably, the sprawling ridings around the Greater
Toronto Area. Many in the party believe Scheer handled LGBT issues and abortion questions poorly in the fall election campaign and O’toole’s team thinks he can be a mainstream voice on those issues.
Whether O’toole’s ability in French is good enough for a national campaign is a lingering concern for other
Conservatives, however, and will likely be a focus point for his rivals.
Poilievre, meanwhile, has lined up support from heavyweight organizers in
Stephen Harper’s era, including former cabinet minister John Baird and senior political staffer Jenni Byrne. Poilievre, who’s developed a public image as a highly partisan attack dog, is expected to have strong appeal among the Conservative membership and would be a contrast to more centrist candidates such as O’toole, Charest and Mackay.
There has been some speculation that only one of Charest or Mackay would enter the race, given they would compete for many of the same fundraisers and campaign staff. But both are canvassing support and some Conservatives now think both may enter. At this point, sources say, Charest appears to be closer to entering than Mackay.
Ambrose would find significant organizational support if she put her name forward, but there is so far no sign she is putting together a team and she has not said anything on the subject publicly. If Ambrose doesn’t run, the Conservatives could have a slate of candidates without any women. But former B. C. premier Christy Clark hasn’t ruled out a run for the leadership, and other Conservatives have mentioned Manitoba MP Candice Bergen and Alberta MP Michelle Rempel as potential candidates.
The leadership vote has been set for June 27 at the Toronto Congress Centre. Entry requirements and other rules for the race are expected to be officially announced next week.
COLLECTION OF 3,000 CANADA-WIDE SIGNATURES COULD BE A BARRIER.