outlook 2020
FROM BANK OF CANADA TO TRUMP , EXPERTS DISECT FORCES AT PLAY IN YEAR TO COME.
National Post and the Canadian Club of Toronto held their 43rd annual outlook luncheon in Toronto on Tuesday. And with the U. S. and Iran embroiled in a new round of tensions, a minority government at home and an election coming south of the border, the panel of experts assembled for the occasion had plenty of grist for their prognostications. Here are some the highlights:
All aboard the ‘crazy train’ JF Perrault, chief economist at Scotiabank:
Only three days into the year, U. S. forces killed Iranian General Qassem Soleimani in an airstrike. Scotiabank chief economist JeanFrançois Perrault seemed less concerned with the impact of war than he did with how this event may set up the rest of the year.
“As we closed the year out and this deal with China was in the works, people were starting to think OK this year is going to be more comfortable and here we are at the beginning of the year with something that was arguably on nobody’s radar that has potentially very significant geopolitical and economic consequences,” Perrault said. “We’re on the crazy train again.”
Ta ke it to the bank
Kevin Carmichael, Financial Post:
Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz announced in December that he would be stepping down at the end of his second term, which concludes in June 2020. The independent director of the Bank of Canada’s board will be tasked with finding a successor to Poloz. A candidate will then be put forward by the board to the federal cabinet, who can accept the nomination or make their own selection.
“I do believe it’s a serious process,” said Kevin Carmichael, national business columnist for the Financial Post. “It’s a merit- based process so quality people will go in there. I think that maybe it’s the one part of Ottawa that’s not entirely broken so somebody good will come out of there.”
“The feeling in Ottawa is that
if the current senior deputy at the Bank of Canada can show herself to be as good as everybody else who comes through the process then our government would have a hard time not putting a woman in that position so it’s probably ( Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor) Carolyn Wilkins’ opportunity to lose.”
world needs a climate realization
Amanda Lang, BNN Bloomberg:
Natural fires are ravaging Australia and BNN Bloomberg anchor Amanda Lang believes that now is the time for the world to come to a realization that it needs to act on climate change.
“I hope we get to a place where we understand what we need to do about climate in a way where it informs our every decision,” Lang said.
“I say that because as we all know even in Australia today there is no political will to take serious action. It is still an issue politicians won’t address and it’s late for all of us and we resist that. We just have to find our way there but it has to be a global realization. I hope that U.S. and China and Europe and Australia, which is the single biggest producer and exporter of coal to China, gets on board.”
Trump may prevai l again
Matt Gurney, National Post:
When moderator Bruce Sellery asked the individual members of the panel whether they believed Donald Trump would be the U. S. president at this time next year,
Matt Gurney, executive producer of comment at National Post, was all alone in predicting he would be.
“I don’t think the Democrats have figured out yet how to beat him and I think as long as they keep fighting on their own left flank, they’re going to ignore the problem on their right flank,” said Gurney. “This is a 51-49 prediction for me because God only knows what’s happened as we’ve been sitting up here ... The Democrats, it’s probably theirs to lose and they’ll probably find a way. I just don’t have confidence in them right now that they’ll actually be able to beat him.”
U. S . - China trade war may not get resolved
in 2020
Shauna Sexsmith, Manulife
The U. S. and China may have agreed to a ceasefire in their months-long trade war before the end of 2019, but Manulife senior managing director Shauna Sexsmith is still concerned about a lack of resolution. The Phase 1 agreement still needs to be signed — although that’s widely expected to occur in early January — and all the details of what’s actually involved in it are still unclear. The two sides will also need to begin talks on Phase 2 of their trade agreement.
In the meanwhile, Canada is the collateral damage, Sexsmith said.
“Canada is just stuck sitting between a rock and a hard place waiting for this to play itself out,” she said.
“I don’t think there’s going to be new tariffs announced any time soon and this Phase 1 of the U. S.China trade deal will probably be a nice photo opp but nothing substantial, but at least it will take some of the rhetoric and pressure off because it was really bad at times last year.
“This has to get resolved but I don’t know that it’s going to happen this year.”