National Post

U.s.-china trade war hangs over Taiwan vote

SELF- RULED ISLAND

- Samson Ellis

Taiwanese voters will cast ballots Saturday in an election that will determine the future direction of the world’s only Chinese- speaking democracy as it faces pressure to pick sides in a global power struggle between the United States and China.

President Tsai Ing- wen of the ruling Democratic Progressiv­e Party is seeking a second term in the face of competitio­n from Han Kuo- yu of the main opposition Kuomintang, which has governed for much of the time since the Second World War, and James Soong of the People First Party.

Analysts widely expect a win for Tsai after she backed Hong Kong’s pro- democracy protests and oversaw a robust economy despite the U.S .- China trade war.

While issues such as wages, housing and air quality are important to voters, the self- ruled island’s complex relationsh­ip with China is the main political fissure in Taiwanese society. A victory for Tsai, whose party advocates formal independen­ce from China, would likely mean four more years of no talks between the two sides on one of the region’s main potential flash points.

China, which claims Taiwan as part of its territory, cut off all contact with Tsai’s government after she declined to endorse the “oneChina” policy after her inaugurati­on in 2016. Since she took power, Beijing has sought to further isolate Taipei diplomatic­ally by convincing smaller nations in the Pacific, Africa and Central America to switch sides.

“We do not rule out the possibilit­y of discussion­s, dialogues and meetings between Taiwan and China, but they need to be conducted without preconditi­ons,” Taiwan’s foreign minister Joseph Wu said in Taipei Thursday. “If China wants to speak with Taiwan, they should speak with Taiwan as it is. Taiwan is a democracy.”

The presidenti­al election isn’t the only choice facing voters: The battle for control of Taiwan’s top law- making body could end up being more consequent­ial in Saturday’s elections. If the electorate returns Tsai to the presidenti­al office but gives the KMT a majority in the legislatur­e, it will likely lead to four years of political acrimony and deadlock. The reverse could also be true.

A Japanese colony for the first half of the 20th century, Taiwan came under the control of China’s Nationalis­t government after the Second World War. It became a refuge for Chiang Kai-shek and his troops as they fled the Communists at the end of China’s civil war.

Under Tsai, Taiwan has aligned itself more closely with the U.S ., interrupti­ng eight years of closer ties with China under her predecesso­r Ma Ying-jeou. At stake in this election is whether Taiwan continues to move closer to the U.S. or reverts to an economic policy focused on China’s markets, as advocated by Han.

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