Generation Z can shake up U.S. election
But only if they care enough to cast a vote
This year’s U. S. presidential poll will be my children’s election not mine: that simple fact could make all the difference to the outcome.
The demographics of the 2020 poll will be like no other in U. S. history. According to a new study from the Pew Research Centre, baby boomers like me and the generations above us will account for less than 40 per cent of voters in 2020, down from 68 per cent in 2000.
Meanwhile, my kids — part of Generation Z, those aged 18 to 23 now, by Pew’s definition — will make up 10 per cent of eligible voters, up from four per cent in 2016 when President Donald Trump was elected. They will be more diverse ( only 55 per cent white) and thus more likely to vote Democratic than my boomer generation and above which is three quarters white and more likely to vote Republican.
“The boomers and older generations don’t have the voting clout that they had in 2000,” says Richard Fry, one of the authors of the Pew report.
So the electoral tide is slowly turning against me.
Or is it? Everything will depend on whether all these whippersnappers can get out of bed to go to the polls. The record of 18- to 24- year- olds on that score is far from stellar, says William Frey, demographer at the Brookings Institution. The voter turnout rate for 18- to 24- year olds in 2016 was 43 per cent, compared with 71 per cent for those 65 or older. Young voters punch below their demographic weight by not turning out — and young Asian voters like my kids, who are ethnically Chinese, turn out in an even smaller proportion.
“It’s possible that older generations will form a larger share of actual voters in 2020 than their share of the electorate,” says the Pew report, pointing out that Boomers and above accounted for 43 per cent of eligible voters in 2016 but cast nearly half the ballots.
But Frey counters that young people turned out very strongly in the 2018 midterm elections, when those 18 to 29s saw turnout rise by 16 percentage points from only 20 per cent in the previous midterms to 36 per cent in 2018. ( Midterm turnout is always below that of a presidential election). Still, 66 per cent of eligible voters over 65 turned out in the same election. The kids cleaned up their electoral act — but my generation still outvoted them.
So in 2020, young voters will still probably account for a smaller share of actual votes as opposed to potential votes. “The question is how much below their weight they are going to punch, but I’m still very certain that there is going to be a much bigger youth turnout in 2020 than in 2016,” says Frey.
My kids are not off to a good start, though. As college students, they need to apply for absentee ballots to vote in our Illinois primary on March 17. I offered to go online and sign them up myself — until someone pointed out that would technically be voter fraud. Eventually, I hounded one of them into requesting a ballot, but the other has resisted parental entreaties.
Kristina Blagojev, 20, a student at the University of Illinois at Chicago, mailed her ballot request in with time to spare. She’s leaning toward Bernie Sanders and has no intention of “throwing away my voice” by not getting a ballot. But she told me a lot of her friends, while fully intending to vote, tend to say, “’ I’d have to buy an envelope, I’d have to buy a stamp, it’s just a lot of effort’, and they put it off so long until it’s primary day and they’ve thrown away their vote”.
I didn’t think it tactful to point out to a member of the generation that cut its milk teeth on technology that it takes 10 seconds to request a ballot online.
Ethan Scott, 19, a student at Depaul University in Chicago, already has a firm plan to come home to vote where he is registered for the primary. He follows the election closely, and taught me a thing or two about some of the candidates.
If motivated voters like Ethan and Kristina turn out in this year’s poll, especially in swing states, this really will be Generation Z’s election — and most likely the Democrats’. If they don’t, Boomers will dominate, and most likely Donald Trump will win. It’s all down to the demographics — not to mention complicated technologies like the postage stamp.