IT’S LITTLE WONDER WE’VE SUNK TO THESE DEPTHS.
It’s not easy to achieve the kind of global crisis we’ve bumbled ourselves into. It takes lousy leadership, short-sightedness, poor memories, a healthy dose of ignorance and a big contribution from circumstances that are beyond our control.
The two world wars didn’t happen overnight and still inspire scholarly analysis over whether and how they might have been avoided. The Great Depression was a catastrophic mix of weather, politics and monumental stupidity, yet despite 80 years of scrutiny, we’ve learned so little, we very nearly fell into a similar chasm just a decade ago. I’m old enough to clearly recall the desultory decade of the 1970s, years in which the world managed to combine stagnant economies with runaway inflation, a time that climaxed with interest rates approaching 20 per cent, a wave of bankruptcies and homes lost to the ravages of killer mortgage costs. Former U. S. president Ronald Reagan’s 1984 campaign ad, “It’s morning again in America,” reflected Americans’ widespread feeling that they had endured years of darkness in the wake of Watergate, the oil shock and uninspiring, discredited leaders.
Leadership doesn’t necessarily cause crises, but its absence is usually a key component. Winston Churchill titled his survey of the prewar years in Europe “While England Slept,” in recognition of the determined refusal to listen to the many warnings of the cataclysm to come, a failure captured anew in The Gathering Storm, the first book of his war memoirs. Good leadership, which isn’t necessarily the same as strong leadership, is so rare, we tend to lionize the few figures who enter its ranks long after their departure. Winston Churchill, Franklin Roosevelt, Mahatma Gandhi, Nelson Mandela, Kemal Ataturk, Abraham Lincoln — people who brought about positive change with impacts well beyond their own borders.
That being the case, the state of world leadership at the moment offers little to be inspired by. Autocrats, demagogues and despots abound. Amid the avalanche of headlines about the spread of the coronavirus, it would be easy to miss the fact that Moscow’s lapdog legislature has obediently approved President Vladimir Putin’s bid to become ruler for life. The Russian president has already been in power in one form or another for 20 years and will now be able to serve two more six-year terms after his current one expires in 2024. Should he live that long, he will easily pass Josef Stalin as the longest- serving Russian overlord since the fall of the czars.
Putin’s triumph echoes the success of Chinese President Xi Jinping in concentrating power in his own hands while enfeebling formal opposition. In Putin’s case it comes as he’s embroiled in cementing Russia’s increased role in Syria, where it has done so much to save blood-soaked President Bashar Assad from the hangman’s noose he deserves. Putin is currently contributing to Assad’s security by pitting Russia’s military against Turkish troops over the last region of the country still unconquered after years of brutal warfare. Though Turkey is nominally a member of NATO, the Western military alliance, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is very much a man in the Putin mould, a ruthless figure who has devoted decades to cementing his dominance on the national stage, while jailing opponents, silencing critics and transforming the legislature into a compliant echo chamber. Erdogan has made clear his willingness to use Syrian refugees as a weapon in his demands for concessions from Europe, where Italy is under a national lockdown and Germany is about to lose its most seasoned leader, Chancellor Angela Merkel, who warned Wednesday that 70 per cent of the country, 58 million people, could contract the coronavirus.
Merkel’s party is in disarray after her presumed successor withdrew her candidacy. Far- right forces have been gaining ground in recent elections, amid examples of neo-nazi violence. Britain remains drained from years of bitter debate over Brexit, which still faces months and perhaps years of risky negotiations. Israel has held three elections in an effort to choose a government. It failed again in the latest vote, after which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sought approval to delay his trial on fraud and corruption charges. The court refused. The party of his main opponent, Blue and White Leader Benny Gantz, hopes to hobble Netanyahu with legislation that would block anyone under indictment from serving as prime minister. Gantz has been targeted by so many threats that his protective security has been sharply upgraded, with Netanyahu’s approval.
These are the people running the world’s affairs, which explains a great deal about the perilous state they’re in. It’s a pretty daunting scenario, even before you arrive at the unsettling reminder that any hope of turning the tide towards a more peaceful and orderly future resides in a country currently under the sway of Donald J. Trump and his ever- changing band of enablers, goons and sycophants. Eight months before the next election, it remains uncertain that Americans have learned enough about their president and his methods to try for something better, even as the administration works to convince its followers that all this talk about a virus is overblown. (Apparently Italy is closed for business as part of a Democratic party plot to undermine Trump’s re- election hopes.)
Amid all this, Canada finds itself in its usual position of hoping to ride out a storm over which we have little influence. Maybe if we’re careful, we can just get by. It’s one of the benefits of being a harmless little power that spends its life peering through the window at a more turbulent world. Ottawa has introduced a $1-billion emergency fund and everyone is being careful not to cough on one another, to the extent it’s possible on rush-hour buses and at soldout hockey games. The fund might have been bigger, but the government has wildly overspent throughout years of economic growth. Now it’s facing a crisis during a potential downturn, with deficits already at worrying levels.
It could have done more to prepare during good times, but it didn’t. It saw no need. And spending is fun. Maybe it’s a sign that our leadership leaves something to be desired, too.