Albertans fret over economy, not COVID-19

Albertans are far more worried about longterm economic damage from COVID- 19 than they are by the disease itself, according to a poll done for the Jason Kenney government by Yorkville Strategies.

Seventy- six per cent of respondents are deeply concerned by the threat of lasting economic harm, it says.

By contrast, only about 30 per cent worry most about catching the disease themselves. Concern for the health of friends and family takes this up to about 45 per cent.

Asked to choose the bigger threat to Alberta over the next year, 47 per cent said low oil prices and 40 per cent picked the pandemic crisis.

These striking findings show the dilemma governments face — how to get the economy moving again, even while people aren’t allowed to move very much.

Independent pollster Marc Henry says that despite the deep economic fears, people are also wary of an abrupt end to isolation measures “because there’s a fear that if they open up the economy too early, they’re going to hurt the economy even more.”

The Yorkville Strategies survey shows a stunning level of positive response — from 82 per cent to 90 per cent — to various questions about how the government is handling the COVID crisis and responding to Albertans’ economic needs.

The poll surveyed 1,011 Albertans April 12-15, with an accuracy rating of plus or minus three per cent.

Government polls seldom fall into a journalist’s hands for any reason but self- interest. To help balance the picture, I talked to Henry, president of Think HQ, who will release his own poll on many of these issues later in the week.

He finds some positive findings to be quite close to his own. But he also notes that despite undeniably high approval for COVID-19 measures, the UCP government’s general ratings aren’t nearly so good.

On UCP handling of the crisis itself, Henry says, “we’ve got them sitting in the mid-70s in terms of overall managing of the spread and impact of coronavirus.”

“Concern about COVID-19 is reasonably high, but it’s not as high as the economy and employment,” Henry says. “People are very worried about what long- term impacts are going to be.”

In the Yorkville survey, the government also gets good marks in all age groups and areas of the province for providing a plan to ease restrictions and prevent a second wave of COVID-19 from happening.

There’s majority backing for various specific measures to flatline the disease and hasten reopening of the economy:

Increasing availability of testing: 92 per cent;

Encouraging the use of masks in crowded places like grocery stores or on public transit: 76 per cent;

Strict enforcement of quarantine orders by using smartphone technology: 69 per cent;

Voluntary use of tracing technology, including cellphone data: 66 per cent;

And, perhaps most remarkably, 54 per cent approve mandatory use of tracing with cellphone data.

In a section on mental health, unsettling findings have already prompted the government to add $53 million to mental health funding.

Seventy- eight per cent of women and 71 per cent of men say the crisis has had a negative impact on their mental health. Big majorities feel uncertain about the future, especially in the 18- 54 age group.

Henry says there’s also a darker side to the findings.

His polling shows that when Kenney himself is linked to questions about the crisis, support falls to the mid-50 per cent range. Government performance overall is below 50 per cent.

Henry feels the public has very high regard for the experts handling COVID-19, especially Dr. Deena Hinshaw, chief medical officer of health, whose popularity is “off the charts.”

But when people start thinking about the political side of Kenney’s operation, they’re less impressed.

For now, however, it’s important that Kenney has strong majority approval for his COVID-19 measures. The alternative could be U.s.-style chaos.