A precarious world
ATTEMPTS AT ECONOMIC RECOVERY, TENSIONS WITH CHINA WILL BE KEY ISSUES IN THE 2020 U. S. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
While attempts at post- COVID-19 economic recovery are likely to dominate the 2020 presidential election, burgeoning tensions in a bipolar U. S. — China world will be a close second. The Trump administration is frantically trying to resuscitate the U. S. economy without sacrificing the well- being and safety of Americans. The reopening will not be as quick or as complete as the lockdown. While public funds are being shovelled out the door in record amounts, the debt load down the road is staggering ( and not just for America). More than 26 million Americans have already applied for unemployment insurance. Goldman Sachs expects the impact to be four times worse than 2008/ 09. There is growing concern that the shutdown may have a more negative impact than the Great Depression. It is difficult to compare Donald Trump to Herbert Hoover, but he could suffer a similar fate. Yet Trump promises to be a more effective campaigner than his syntactically challenged rival. But a choice between reckless and feckless offers little promise of responsible, Roosevelt-style, global leadership.
The U. S. and China are increasingly at loggerheads on several fronts. Despite Trump’s contradictory impulse to praise effusively his personal relations with President Xi, he and his administration are out front blaming China for the virus outbreak and for concealing information that would have helped America and the world cope earlier with the pandemic. Chinese authorities returned the salvos by accusing the U. S. military of being the culprit. These exchanges were described with unusual candour by China’s ambassador to the U. S. as “crazy.” Trump may have turned on China to distract attention about his handling of the crisis.
Trump has attacked “Beijing Biden” for being soft on China. Joe Biden has responded vigorously, claiming that Trump “rolled over for the Chinese by taking their word” on the virus.
Trump, he added, left America “unprepared and unprotected.” But Biden is also vulnerable to criticism for his staunch, pro- China track record as well as the taint of impropriety involving his son Hunter’s commercial deals with China — an association Trump can easily embellish. No matter who wins the campaign battle to get tough on China, there will be greater uncertainty in a more precarious world.
In terms of global stability, the broader problem is the absence of confident American leadership, which is debilitating for the Western alliance and for global institutions that depend on confident U. S. stewardship. Trump’s persistent refrain about America’s “waste” of $8 trillion in the Middle East is, given the sorry results, not off the mark and is a major reason Americans are more skeptical about conventional foreign policy and national security expertise. Despite the huge U. S. expense of treasure and blood, the Middle East and Afghanistan remain quagmires of depravation and instability. Americans are weary of their own futility and leery of further interventions anywhere. That is why ambitions for global leadership are on hold. China is only too happy to fill the leadership vacuum aided and abetted on occasion by chronic nuisance partners like Russia, Iran and North Korea.
Beyond COVID-19, China is now seen as a serious threat to American geopolitical and economic interests. Most recent polling by Pew Research indicates that twothirds of Americans now view China unfavourably, an increase from 47 per cent two years ago. The growing adversarial approach from both Congress and the administration is spreading across the country and the trend is bipartisan — Republicans at 72 per cent; Democrats at 62 per cent.
Concern is mounting specifically about the degree to which America and other countries, including Canada, are too dependent on China for critical medical supplies in the battle against the pandemic and, more generally, about the global manufacturing industry’s overreliance on China’s supply of intermediate products. Writing in the South China Morning Post, Cary Huang stated that “COVID-19 will not only hasten the efforts of Western nations to diversify their supply sources from China but also to diversify away from China to reduce the national security and geopolitical hazards.”
While global attention is riveted on the pandemic, Beijing is already cracking down hard on protesters in Hong Kong and moving to solidify its maritime claims in the South China Sea. Calling for “dialogue” on Hong Kong is feeble. A proposal for collective sanctions on China would carry more bite.
Popular support is growing in America for a voluntary campaign to boycott all products from China. Environmentalists are now openly scornful of China’s lax commitments to climate change.
China’s highest security virology centre is at the centre of the pandemic debate and increasingly the focus of speculation about how and when the coronavirus emerged. Knowing the origin of the virus is key to efforts to prevent future possible pandemics. Yet, as the blame game continues and the desire to establish scapegoats intensifies politically, the prospect of closer international co- operation — the best antidote of all — is remote. Each nation prefers to cope essentially on its own. Regrettably, neither Trump nor Biden seem to have the capability or the character to lead globally and ensure that the world is better able to respond next time.
The economic fallout from the pandemic will be more serious than the disease itself and recovery is likely to be painfully slow. Many Americans are straining at the leash and demanding a return to “normalcy.” Trump is straddling precariously on “the most important decision of my life,” determining precisely when and how to reopen the economy. He understands that his election prospects hinge heavily on his ability to get the balance right between ensuring the health and safety of Americans and needing to get people back to work.
Canada has little choice but to counsel the U. S. administration to make better use of its allies and the institutions vital to our shared security and prosperity, as CNN’S Fareed Zakaria recommended in a recent Munk Debate. He added that Americans trust Canadians as “friendly neighbours” and that we should use that trust to help the administration and Congress understand why a broader approach to current global challenges would be beneficial to America. It is always wise to tailor advice to America’s self- interest. Collective action, not just heavy rhetoric, is the best way to confront the rising ambitions of China, whose form of government is antithetical to our democratic principles and whose poor sanitation standards are ripe for another epidemic.
Canada should collaborate with its allies to bolster the sense of purpose of NATO, the WTO and the G7, institutions that are vital to our shared objectives on security and prosperity. We are stronger, more effective and more credible if we concert efforts to thwart China’s behaviour on global security, on health emergencies, on trade, and on its flagrant abuse of basic human rights.
The contrasting images of the two Canadians incarcerated in stark detention by China while the Chinese daughter of Huawei’s founder languishes in a palatial $12-million Vancouver mansion should arouse the ire of all Canadians.
the broader problem is the absence of confident
American leadership.