Canadian banks’ mortgage deferrals double the U. S. rate
Likely to curb earnings: analysis
• Canada’s top six banks have deferred mortgage repayments at nearly double the rate of their U. S. counterparts, setting themselves up for a tough slog to return to their pre- pandemic performance as higher household debt and insolvencies weigh on borrowing.
Even with about 16 per cent of Canadian banks’ mortgage books subject to deferrals, many investors believe the $ 11 billion that lenders have set aside to cover potential loan losses are conservative, based on current economic assumptions.
They are concerned, however, that elevated unemployment and an expected souring of many deferred mortgages currently marked as performing loans will cap future lending and hurt earnings in the next few years.
“There’s going to be limited earnings growth coming through, if any” until employment returns to about 80 per cent to 90 per cent of pre- coronavirus levels, said Sadiq Adatia at Sun Life Global Investments.
Canada last week posted a surprise jobs gain in May, but the jobless rate rose to 13.7 per cent, sharply higher than February’s 5.6 per cent.
Despite a nearly sixfold rise in provisions in the April quarter, capital ratios fell by less than 40 basis points from the previous three months, helped by regulators’ treatment of deferred mortgages as performing loans.
That has diminished the risk of dividend cuts and capital increases, Adatia said.
Canadian banks provided six- month deferrals starting in mid- March to help tide customers over the economic crisis sparked by the COVID-19 pandemic. Come September, clients’ balances will be adjusted to reflect the deferral amounts, which they will be required to pay over the course of their mortgage.
U. S. mortgage deferrals stood at 8.5 per cent as of May 24, according to Mortgage Bankers’ Association data, in part due to higher government unemployment benefits and additional stimulus payments regardless of employment status.
With Canada’s household debt- to- GDP ratio rising to 101.3 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2019, among the highest in the developed world, the Bank of Canada warned last month stretched consumers could remain frugal when pandemic- driven shutdowns are relaxed. Consumer insolvencies, which had been growing at the fastest pace since the global financial crisis even before the COVID-19 outbreak, slowed in March. But Credit Suisse analyst Mike Rizvanovic attributed the declines to pandemic- driven shutdowns, and predicted a “sizable backlog” will show up from June.
“The significant deterioration in Canada’s economy and labour market will drive insolvencies materially higher over the medium term,” weighing on banks’ loan growth, he said in a note.