NOW THE HARD PART BEGINS
As Canadians watched horrifying scenes of hospitals in northern Italy inundated by COVID-19 patients, the reality that the virus had escaped national boundaries and was coming to Canada became undeniable. With hospital beds, protective equipment, ventilators and even hand sanitizer in short supply here, Canadian governments took the painful but unavoidable decision to place much of our society in a medically induced coma.
The good news is that, for the most part, the strategy is working. Despite heart- rending reports of the disease sweeping through long- term care facilities and some work sites that lacked physical distancing, our medical system has been coping and infection rates in most of the country are trending down. By June 3, the federal government reported that in 10 jurisdictions there had been no new deaths in the previous 24 hours, while the nationwide daily case count over the previous seven days was 23.5- per- cent lower than for the seven days before.
Given what they knew at the time, governments had no choice but to apply across- the- board lockdowns that in less than a month took our country from record low unemployment to a post- Depression high. Even after lockdowns end, tens of thousands of businesses won’t be there for workers to return to. And the federal government alone has added over $ 250 billion to the national debt, with the figure likely to go much higher before the “new normal” — whatever that will be — begins.
The decision to shut down the economy was hard but reopening it will be more difficult still. But we have no choice: a vaccine is still some time away and the social and economic costs of confining people to their homes are high and rising.
So, what is the alternative? The starting point needs to be a frank admission that the disease has not been beaten and that we will be forced to live with it in our midst until we have a vaccine. Governments must move from telling us to stay home to implementing a coherent plan to manage COVID risk while allowing people to resume more of their ordinary lives. No plan can eliminate risk but one that is well- designed can reduce it to manageable proportions. We’ll face setbacks and course corrections but we must move towards reopening society. Some elements of a strategy are:
Public health comes first. Reopening won’t work if employees, customers and the general public believe they are risking their own or their families’ health. We need to have strict protocols and procedures for businesses, public institutions and Canadians at large. Supermarkets and grocery stores have adapted to operate safely over the last several weeks — so it can be done.
Dependable testing and tracing are key. When new cases arise, they must be identified and contained to continue reducing infection rates and building public confidence that it’s safe to travel, shop or eat in a restaurant. Though we are lagging in this area the good news is that rapid testing technologies are becoming available. Even in New York City, which is starting to reopen this week after being the epicentre of infection in the U. S., public health officials believe they can meet the need.
Tailored measures, rather than one- size- fits- all, must be the new focus of risk management. We need to heighten protection for the elderly and other high- risk groups even as we continue to loosen restrictions for others.
Plans need to be clear and coherent. We must replace the hodgepodge of regulations with a strategy that reflects local conditions but has a degree of consistency. It’s hard for a national retailer to plan properly when procedures and required equipment vary significantly from one town to the next. This point shouldn’t be lost on those living in the national capital, where for the last several weeks the bridges between Ottawa and Gatineau have separated two parallel universes.
We need timetables. Yes, they will change as infection rates trend up or down, but businesses can’t plan unless they know when and how they can resume operations. We are at risk of losing this year’s summer tourist season, which is critical for communities right across Canada. Without a notional reopening date, airlines, hotels and other businesses can’t get started on rehiring and recovery.
Continuing support for individuals and businesses must be coupled with a plan to transition from a subsidies- based to self- supporting economy. To deal with their massive new debts, governments must revisit their pre- COVID agendas and differentiate between the nice- to- haves and the must- haves. Jobs, investment and growth top the list of must-haves.
Fortunately, we don’ t need to reinvent the wheel. Other countries are well ahead of us. South Korea has been from the start. Europe is reopening travel between countries. Australia and New Zealand are well along. And to our south most U. S. states are reopening, with varying degrees of success. We can watch others and see what works and what doesn’t.
These are dangerous and uncertain times. It’s tempting to say that no risk is acceptable. But trying to avoid all risk would be the costliest strategy of all. The hard work of rebuilding our economy and our lives needs to begin now.