Lottery offers hope for NHL’S bottom feeders
Contrary to what the tin- hat conspiracy theorists might think, the National Hockey League does not want the New Jersey Devils or the Detroit Red Wings or the Los Angeles Kings to win the draft lottery on Friday night.
But with how messy this year’s draft lottery could become, here’s guessing that commissioner Gary Bettman is probably hoping for simplest result possible.
We would only get that if all three picks are awarded to any of the bottom- seven teams. If not — if Montreal or Chicago or some other “placeholder” team that is ranked 17th through 24th in the standings and still in the hunt for the Stanley Cup happens to end up with a No. 1, 2, or 3 overall pick — then things will get very complicated.
A second draft lottery will be held sometime after the play- in round of the post-season, where the eight losing teams will be entered into a draw for any of the picks that were won by a “placeholder” team in the first draft lottery. If two bottom- seven teams, such as Detroit and Buffalo, win the No. 1 and No. 3 picks, but a “placeholder” team such as Arizona win the No. 2 pick, then only the No. 2 pick will be redrawn.
It’s a bit confusing, which is why it obviously would be better if Detroit, Ottawa or any of the bottom- seven teams win all three picks on Friday and we won’t need a second lottery.
Here is a look at the bottom six teams ( San Jose, which finished with the third- worst record, traded its pick to Ottawa) that are vying for the chance to select top prospect Alexis Lafrieniere and why each badly needs to win:
DETROIT RED WINGS
❚ Odds of winning: 18.5 per cent
❚ Worst- case scenario: 4th overall
❚ Why they need to win: Did you watch any Red Wings games this year? The team won just 17 games ( Boston picked up its 17th win on Nov. 27). With a new arena to fill, Detroit needs someone exciting worth watching. Lafreniere could be that guy.
❚ What will likely happen: Detroit will end up with its first No. 1 overall pick since Joe Murphy in 1986.
OTTAWA SENATORS
❚ Odds of winning: 25 per cent combined ( 13.5 per cent for their own pick and 11.5 per cent for the pick acquired from San Jose)
❚ Worst- case scenario: 5th and 6th overall
❚ Why they need to win: No team has better odds than Ottawa, which finished with the second-worst record and also have the pick belonging to the 29th- place San Jose Sharks. Selecting No. 1 and No. 2 is obviously the bestcase scenario and would gift the team with Lafreniere and Quinton Byfield.
❚ What will likely happen: The Senators will end up with fifth and sixth picks, causing Eugene Melnyk to conduct a CSI- style forensic investigation to prove someone tampered with the lottery balls.
LOS ANGELES KINGS
❚ Odds of winning: 9.5 per cent
❚ Worst- case scenario: 7th overall
❚ Why they need to win: Drew Doughty and Anze Kopitar are still in their prime, so adding Lafreniere to a team that scored the second-fewest goals last season could turn this rebuild into more of a re-tool.
❚ What will likely happen: The Kings, who selected Doughty at the No. 2 spot in 2008, use the second overall pick on defenceman Jamie Drysdale.
ANAHEIM DUCKS
❚ Odds of winning: 8.5 per cent
❚ Worst- case scenario: 8th overall
❚ Why they need to win: The Ducks have never had the No. 1 pick. The last time they drafted in the top five was when they selected Bobby Ryan with the No. 2 overall pick in 2005. Anaheim needs a star to build around to take advantage of while goalie John Gibson is still in his prime.
❚ What will likely happen: The Ducks will end up with seventh overall pick and select Swedish wild card Lucas Raymond, who goes on to become the David Pastrnak of the draft.
NEW JERSEY DEVILS
❚ Odds of winning: 7.5 per cent
❚ Worst- case scenario: 9th overall
❚ Why they need to win: The Devils traded away Taylor Hall, Blake Coleman, Andy Greene and Wayne Simmonds last season, leaving the team with P. K. Subban and No. 1 overall picks Nico Hischier and Jack Hughes and not much else. Adding Lafreniere would give them a younger version of Hall.
❚ What will likely happen: They drop down from sixth to ninth and select Russian goalie Yaroslav Askarov, who might be the best goalie prospect since Carey Price.
BUFFALO SABRES
❚ Odds of winning: 6.5 per cent
❚ Worst- case scenario: 10th overall
❚ Why they need to win: The Sabres fired pretty much all of their scouting staff last week, so picking anywhere other than in the top three could result in a bust. Imagine putting Lafreniere on Jack Eichel’s wing?
❚ What will likely happen: The Sabres end up with the 10th overall pick and trade it for someone who can step in and help the team right now.