Same data but climate studies far apart on conclusions
‘Both of the sides of the story are legitimate’
• A group of Canadian physicians has released a study that says if the federal government reduces carbon emissions to zero by 2050, it will save 112,081 lives and create 1.3 million fulltime jobs.
The paper, released by the Canadian Association of Physicians for the Environment ( CAPE), comes at the same time as research from the Canadian Energy Centre — better known as the “war room” in Alberta — argues that there will be substantial losses of government revenue and jobs should the Canadian government meet its targets under the Paris Climate Agreement.
Interestingly, both research papers used data and modelling from the same firm, Navius Research, a Vancouver- based modelling outfit with a sterling reputation among analysts. And, explained Brianne Riehl, communications manager for Navius, both papers used the same modelling framework and similar assumptions going into the project.
“The key difference is just that these two particular organizations are looking at the results from two different perspectives and highlighting two different impacts,” Riehl told the National Post in an interview. “Both of the sides of the story are legitimate, both are important and both are coming out of the same model.”
“It’s honestly a really interesting fluke that they came out on the same day because it’s a really good indication, for example, of how two different stories can be communicated based on very similar results,” Riehl said.
Trevor Tombe, a University of Calgary economist, says the two studies highlight a few important points on what climate change action could actually mean.
“We ought to recognize that there are benefits from climate change action that do not just accrue globally in the form of global temperatures,” Tombe explained. “And we also ought to recognize that there are real economic costs — there’s no free lunch here.”
The Paris agreement says Canada will reduce its emissions, by 2030, to levels 30- per- cent lower than emissions in 2005. Additionally, the federal government under Justin Trudeau’s Liberals has said the country will reach net-zero emissions by 2050.
While the CEC concludes there will be foregone revenue and jobs — roughly $54 billion and 300,000 jobs — should the federal government dramatically increase the carbon tax to hit its emissions targets, the doctors group argues there will be economic and health benefits to hitting climate-change targets.
“Climate change is already harming Canadians’ health, causing increases in extreme weather events, cases of heat stroke, cardiorespiratory issues, and Lyme disease from ticks that can now survive in our warmer climate,” writes Robin Edger, the executive director and CEO of CAPE, which includes partners such as the Canadian Medical Association, Canadian Federation of Medical Students; Canadian Medical Association, Canadian Physiotherapy Association and the Canadian Public Health Association.
CAPE makes 25 recommendations to the government to seize the opportunity created by COVID-19 to rebuild and reorient the Canadian economy.
Among them are the recommendations to mandate zero- emissions vehicle sales by 2030, and work at converting heavy- duty and public transit fleets in the country to zero- emissions vehicles. As well, the federal government should fund skills training programs to support the transition of workers into renewable energy, and work with provincial and municipal governments to invest in urban green spaces, park trail upgrades, and green corridors.
The report also urges the federal government to rethink the economy in the aftermath of COVID-19 and avoid bailouts to fossil fuel companies, which, the report claims, “will prevent Canada from reaching its climate targets and risk increasing the negative health consequences ... and cascading crises faced by future generations.”
Using the Navius Research modelling, CAPE argues there will be substantial increases in the amount of investment in “the clean economy,” from roughly $ 22 billion in 2020 to $ 91.2 billion in 2050, if net- zero is achieved. This, they argue, is considerably better than the “business as usual” scenario for 2050, which the authors say would be an investment of $44.4 billion.
The report does not consider in depth what the variety of investments by government might cost in terms of expenditure or the impacts on tax revenue.